Rankings Semiconductors Nvidia
Nvidia
77
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Customer concentration−8
- Vendor financing−7
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Guidance / estimates+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 77, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 202.06 USD
- Median analyst target
- 315.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +55.9%
- Analysts
- 62
- Target range
- 180.00 – 515.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −0%
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.6
- Forward P/E
- 16.7
- PEG
- 0.33
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−5 of −30
- −2Quality of growthRevenue depends on a few customers' AI capex budgets (a hardware cycle), even though the operating margin (65%) and ROIC (92%) are exceptional. ROIC has fallen from 191% (FY25) to 92%, though.
- −3Quality of earningsAbout $32bn of pre-tax profit (TTM) comes from outside operations, mainly gains on equity stakes ($7.8bn in Q2 alone). GAAP EPS in Q2 was $2.46 vs $2.22 adjusted. FCF is only 66% of net profit vs 83% in FY25.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyTrailing P/E 28.5 and EV/EBITDA 27.5 are below its own history (P/E 38–115 and EV/EBITDA 34–70 in FY22–26); forward P/E 18.7. But without equity gains the P/E is about 33, and P/S 18.3 and P/FCF 44 rest on peak margins.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−27 of −35
- −8Customer concentrationThree direct customers accounted for 16%, 15% and 13% of revenue in H1 FY27 (44% in total); five customers account for 70% of receivables.
- −5Customers are shiftingThe hyperscalers run their own chips at gigawatt scale (Trainium 3, TPU Ironwood, Maia 200, MTIA).
- −7Vendor financingNvidia increasingly finances its own customers: guarantees of up to $105bn for OpenAI's data centre in Ohio (Aug 2026), $25bn in equity investment commitments, $36bn in cloud-capacity buybacks, and receivable days have risen from 45 to 60 because of extended payment terms.
- −2Commitments and inventoryPurchase and capacity commitments rose from $119bn to 279bn in one quarter, and inventory from $25.8bn to 31.6bn. If AI demand turns, it hits hard.
- −3Insider tradingInsiders have sold $664m of stock in 2026; Huang and four other executives sold again on 18/9.
- −2Export controls / geopoliticsChina is out of data-centre compute guidance; H200 sales to China have stalled in a US security review. All advanced production is at TSMC in Taiwan.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2
- +2Guidance / estimatesQ3 guidance $108bn (+12% q/q); management sees chip sales doubling, and analysts expect revenue +91% in FY27.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
GAAP profit lifted by gains on equity stakes; a guarantee of up to $105bn for OpenAI's data centre in Ohio is off balance sheet; multiples rest on peak margins in an AI capex cycle
Also in Semiconductors
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