Rankings Semiconductors Western Digital
Western Digital
72
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−17
- Quality of growth−7
- Customer concentration−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Debt reduction+1
- Buybacks+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 72, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 338.59 USD
- Median analyst target
- 622.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +83.9%
- Analysts
- 26
- Target range
- 405.00 – 900.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +125%
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.1
- Forward P/E
- 11.7
- PEG
- 0.15
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−9 of −30
- −7Quality of growthGross margin has gone from 22.2% (FY23) and 28.1% (FY24) to 48.9% in FY26 and is guided to 55-56% in Q1 FY27; ROIC is 53% versus -2.2% to 17.1% in FY23-25. The lift is primarily price- and mix-driven in an HDD market with three suppliers, where peak prices are not a new normal level.
- −2Technology and the segment of the futureWD still sells ePMR drives (40 TB in volume at two customers), while the first HAMR product (44 TB) does not arrive until early 2027. Competitor Seagate is already under way with HAMR, so WD is behind in the next technology.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−21 of −35
- −17Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 19.6 versus 5.1–11.4 in FY22–25 (except the trough year FY23), P/B 16.2 versus 1.0–4.0, P/S 11.5 versus 0.7–3.9 and EV/EBITDA 29.7 versus 5–10 in normal years. A cyclical hardware stock typically trades low on peak earnings; WD trades high. For comparison, Micron has forward P/E 5.8 and P/B 8.4.
- −4
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−12 of −35
- −5Customer concentrationCloud customers account for almost 90% of revenue, i.e. heavy dependence on a few hyperscalers. The long-term agreements into 2029-2031 are under negotiation, but pricing terms are not yet in place.
- −4Cycle and sentimentThe share price has fallen from $538.83 at fiscal year-end (3 Jul) to $397.28 (-26%) amid a broad sell-off in memory and storage stocks in September, although the stock is still +228% over 52 weeks. Beta is 2.17, and analysts' price targets range from $420 to $1,050.
- −2Substitution from flashManagement says about 80% of hyperscalers' data sits on hard drives, but with record HDD prices and cheaper QLC SSDs over time, that is precisely the share at risk. WD is now a pure HDD company with no flash to fall back on.
- −1Insider tradingCEO Irving Tan sold shares on 11/8-2026 at approx. 441-443 $ via a 10b5-1 plan and transferred 112,500 shares to a trust (estate planning). No insider purchases found, and insiders own only 0.53%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceQ4 FY26 revenue ($3.75bn, +44%) and non-GAAP EPS ($3.56) were above the top of guidance; Q1 FY27 is guided to about $4.1bn (+42-49%) and EPS of $4.00.
- +1Debt reductionDebt has been reduced from 7.6bn $ (FY24) to 1.2bn $, so there is now a small net cash position of 0.4bn $.
- +1BuybacksBuybacks of USD 2.97bn and dividends of USD 0.17bn in FY26 are below FCF of USD 3.51bn; the share count nevertheless rose net due to the conversion.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Pure HDD business after the Sandisk spin-off (Feb. 2025); multiples before FY2025 include the flash business and are only partly comparable. TTM net income of USD 9.3bn (EPS $24.28) includes a gain of about $6.5bn on Sandisk shares and is not repeatable - trailing P/E 16 is therefore misleading; forward P/E (19.6) is used. The share count rose 6.7% due to conversion of convertible bonds (about 21m new shares), not share-based compensation. Seagate's HAMR lead has been examined only superficially, and the long-term customer agreements (2029-2031) have not yet been signed. The fiscal year ends in early July.
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