Rankings Pharma & medtech Sprint Bioscience
Sprint Bioscience
52
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Quality of growth−7
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Partnership+3
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.28 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 217m
- Cash runway
- 17 months
- Cash / debt
- 93.3 / 0.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +41%
Bull case
Another programme deal at TREX1 level (USD 10–20m upfront = SEK 100–200m) for NNMT, DCPS or VPS34 plus a Gilead milestone at clinical start. With self-funding operations the value could reach SEK 0.8–1.1bn = SEK 8–10 per share (2.5–3x).
Bear case
No new deal in 2027, the cash shrinks and momentum turns: the price back to SEK 1.5–2 (−45–55%) and a share issue at a low price. Gilead could drop TREX1, so the milestones disappear.
Catalysts
- 2026-04-01 (happened)Positive proof-of-concept data for NNMT in chronic kidney disease – candidate for the next licence agreementgradual inderes.fi
- 2026-07-23 (happened)Collaboration with Lilly TuneLab (Eli Lilly's AI platform) – could lead to faster programme development and a new partnergradual mfn.se
- 2026-10-27 (estimated)Q3 reportgradual stockanalysis.com
- Not disclosedThe first development milestone from Gilead on TREX1 (part of up to USD 400m)binary fiercebiotech.com
Risk of going to zerolow – net cash of SEK 93m with no debt, about 17 months' runway and a proven ability to sell programmes.
Next financingCash SEK 93.3m (30/6/2026) and a burn of about 16.5m/quarter (H1: 33m) last to about the end of 2027. The company aims to fund itself via new licence deals and Gilead milestones; without a deal a share issue in 2027 is likely. Vinnova support (1/10/2026) is a minor grant.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or debt. Warrants/incentive programmes not examined.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO Johan Emilsson bought 23,750 shares at SEK 1.64 (1/12/2025). Chair Björn Sjöstrand bought 35,108 + 24,872 shares (28/11/2025) and 30,000 at SEK 1.45 (10/12/2025). No insider sales found after the price rise (not fully examined).
Largest ownersFirst Venture Sweden 15.5%, Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 12.9%, Jan Ivar Nordqvist 7.8%, Avanza Pension 7.5%, Mats Westinius incl. WTS Invest 5.4% (borskollen).
Circio check(1) Yes: market value DKK 217m. (2) Partly: immuno-oncology/inflammation and an AI collaboration with Lilly are hot themes. (3) Partly: milestones and new deals, but without dates. (4) Yes: Gilead (TREX1) and Day One (VRK1). (5) No: about 17 months of runway. (6) No: the stock has already risen about 500% – the Circio run has happened.
Why this asymmetryThe best business of the four (proven dealmaking, net cash, Gilead validation), but after +500% in a year much of the upside is priced in, and the next income depends on undated deals. A momentum pullback of 40–50% is as likely as another doubling.
How the score is built
From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 3.58 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +381%
- P/E (trailing)
- 5.1
- Forward P/E
- 13.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −8MarginUnderlying loss-making: zero revenue and operating result of −SEK 30.9m in H1 2026; the positive TTM margin (57%) is solely due to Gilead's upfront payment for TREX1 in Q4 2025.
- −7Quality of growthThe business model is selling preclinical programmes: revenue 35m (2021), 0.1m (2022), 52m (2023), 66m (2024), 167m (2025), 0 in H1 2026 – entirely dependent on new deals and milestones.
- −3MoatA fragment-based discovery platform validated by Gilead (TREX1) and Day One (VRK1), but all its own programmes (NNMT, DCPS, VPS34, STK25) are preclinical.
- −4Capital allocationShare count +41% in a year after the 2025 rights issue and dilution of 46–72% a year in 2021–2023; shareholders have been heavily diluted before any breakthrough.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyMarket cap has risen from SEK 155m to 359m in nine months (+496% over a year); P/B 4.0 vs 0.8–4.4 in most years (11.9 in 2024). Trailing P/E of 4.8 is distorted – on a running basis the company is loss-making, and forward P/E of 14 is based on assumed new agreements.
- −4PeersEV of about SEK 265m for a preclinical discovery biotech without recurring income; Nordic peers with a similar profile typically trade at SEK 100–300m – Sprint is at the high end.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −6Share price riskThe price +496% in a year and about +89% in a month without a big new deal (only a Lilly TuneLab collaboration and Vinnova support); RSI 64 and price far above the 200-day average (2.84).
- −5Dependence on new dealsThe next revenue requires a new licence agreement or a Gilead milestone with no stated timing; spending has risen to an operating loss of SEK 16.6m in Q2 (6.8m a year earlier).
- −2DilutionHistorically dependent on share issues (rights issue May 2025); without a new deal before 2028, a new share issue is likely.
- −2Customer concentrationAlmost all revenue in 2023–2025 came from two US partners (Day One and Gilead).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3
- +3PartnershipGilead bought the TREX1 programme for USD 14m upfront plus up to USD 400m in milestones; Day One has licensed VRK1 (SEK 149m of revenue in total).
- +1Insider buyingCEO Johan Emilsson bought 23,750 shares at SEK 1.64 (1/12/2025), and chair Björn Sjöstrand bought about 90,000 shares in Nov.–Dec. 2025.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The TTM figures (P/E 4.8, ROIC 94%, operating margin 57%) are distorted by Gilead's one-off payment of USD 14m for TREX1 in Q4 2025; H1 2026 had zero revenue and an operating loss of SEK 31m, so the company's own quarterly figures have been used; preclinical pipeline; no stockanalysis forecast; warrants/incentive programmes not examined
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