Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Saab

Saab

Defence, aerospace & space · SwedenRank 527 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history−12
Absolute price level−5
Margin−4

Strengths

Order book+3
Guidance+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

52Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 643.70 SEK
Median analyst target: 680.00 SEK
Upside to median: +5.6%
Analysts: 15
Target range: 330.00 – 790.00 SEK
52-week change: +23%
P/E (trailing): 46.2
Forward P/E: 37.0
PEG: 1.60

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−8 of −30

Margin
Operating margin 10.1% TTM (11.0% in Q2) and a gross margin of only 22.0%, almost unchanged since 2021 (21.0%). In the middle of a historically strong defence market the margin is clearly below Kongsberg (16.1% in Q2) and Rheinmetall (about 17%).
stockanalysis.com
−4
Cash conversion
Saab's own operating cash flow was −SEK 62m in Q2 (−1,136m a year earlier), and net liquidity fell from SEK 4.0bn to 2.5bn in H1. Analysts expect only SEK 2.9bn of FCF for 2026 vs net profit of about 8bn; capex has risen from SEK 1.2bn to 7.4bn since 2021.
saab.com
−4

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−20 of −35

Multiples vs own history
Forward P/E 36.3 vs 14.4–24.8 in 2021–2024 (44.8 at the end of 2025); EV/EBITDA 28.6 vs 7.8–18.7 and P/B 6.6 vs 1.3–3.5 in 2021–2024; P/S 3.8 vs 0.8–2.0. The stock trades near the top of its history after a sixfold rise since the end of 2022.
stockanalysis.com
−12
Peers
Forward P/E 36.3 and EV/EBITDA 28.6 are in line with Kongsberg (forward P/E about 34) and far above Rheinmetall (about 21–26) and Northrop Grumman (about 17) – with a lower margin than all of them. No discount in an already richly valued sector.
stockanalysis.com
−3
Absolute price level
FCF yield 2.1% TTM and earnings yield 2.1%; on analysts' 2026 FCF estimate (SEK 2.86bn) the FCF yield is below 1% of the SEK 332bn market value. Dividend yield 0.4%.
stockanalysis.com
−5

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35

Gripen exports
A string of lost or threatened Gripen campaigns: India chose the Rafale (Feb 2026), Peru is expected to choose the F-16, Canada is leaning towards other aircraft, and Ukraine negotiated for used Mirage 2000s from Qatar; Bank of America downgraded to neutral (March 2026). The Ukraine contract for 16 Gripen E (July) is funded via the Swedish state.
dagensps.se
−4
Execution (submarines)
The A26 submarines for Sweden, contracted in 2015 for delivery in 2022–23, have been delayed again to 2031–2035, and the price must be renegotiated. At the same time a SEK 47bn submarine order for Poland was booked in Q2 – a large execution risk for Kockums.
nyteknik.se
−4
Macro and peace risk
The case and the multiple rest on NATO rearmament and the war in Ukraine; the sector falls together on peace signals (e.g. −3% on 24/6/2026). The stock is only +7% over 52 weeks despite record orders.
placera.se
−4
Customer concentration
The customers are states, and the Swedish state (FMV) is the largest customer and intermediary for, among others, the SEK 24.6bn Ukraine order. The states control orders, timing and prepayments; the share per customer is not disclosed.
saab.com
−3

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15

Order book
Order intake of SEK 68.4bn in Q2 (+141%) and a record order book of SEK 317.7bn (+61%), about 3.6 times TTM revenue.
news.cision.com
+3
Guidance
2026 guidance is organic growth of 20–24% (vs 16–20% for 2025), with EBIT growing faster than revenue.
daytrading.se
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

The B share (SAAB.B). stockanalysis' FCF (SEK 7.1bn TTM) is before investment in intangible assets and leases and lifted by customer prepayments; Saab's own operational cash flow was −SEK 62m in Q2. The SEK 317.7bn order book is partly funded by the Swedish state (Ukraine Gripen via FMV). Calibrated against Kongsberg (64 before formulas), Rheinmetall and Northrop Grumman. Q3 report 23 Oct. 2026.