Rankings Pharma & medtech Stenocare
Stenocare
54
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Capital allocation−7
- Margin−6
- Peers and absolute level−6
Strengths
- Insider buying+1
- Operational turnaround+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.90 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 39m
- Cash runway
- 17 months
- Cash / debt
- 1.7 / 1.0m DKK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +13%
Bull case
France opens a permanent program in 2027, and ASTRUM 10-10 is approved while Germany normalizes. If sales grow to 30–40 m kr. with 30–35% gross margin and 10% EBITDA margin, the value could become 100–150 m kr. (3–4x).
Bear case
The French process drags on, Germany remains closed, and Denmark flattens out. Sales then stagnate around DKK 12–15m with no profit, and an issue under the large authorisations below market price could halve the share price.
Catalysts
- 29 Oct 2026Q3 report: sales in Denmark and Germany, sixth quarter with positive EBITDA?gradual stenocare.com
- No date (decree sent to the Conseil d'État 2/7-2026)French decree on price and reimbursement for medical cannabis is adopted, so ASTRUM 10-10 can apply for accessbinary mb.cision.com
- OngoingClarification of the German rules on prescribing and reimbursementbinary stenocare.com
Risk of going to zerolow to medium - operations are roughly in balance, debt is small and the equity ratio is 70%, but cash is very small, and the authorizations open the way for heavy dilution
Next financingOperations are roughly in balance (EBITDA +DKK 0.1m in H1, operating cash flow −DKK 1.2m TTM, but +1.6m in Q2), so there is no acute need. Cash is however only DKK 1.7m, and a market launch in France will require capital, so an issue in 2027 is possible; the authorisations are large.
Warrants & convertiblesOption programme for the CFO (5 years, small). Authorisations (put to the general meeting April 2026): up to DKK 25m nominal in new shares (approx. 312m shares at DKK 0.08), also below market price, and up to DKK 20m nominal in warrants until January 2027. No convertible loans found.
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurchases: HHTM ApS (Henrik Elbæk) 363,232 shares at DKK 1.29-1.50 on 17-29 December 2025 (DKK 0.5m); also purchases in August 2025 (not quantified). No sales found.
Largest ownersSC-Founders Holding ApS about 26.5%, HHTM ApS (Henrik Elbæk) about 11.6%, DanCann Pharma A/S about 11.5% (CannGros consideration).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 39m. (2) Hot theme: partial, medical cannabis was a theme, but no longer is. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, French decree and approval could change the picture. (4) Major partner: no, only local distributors. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial, operations are in balance, but cash is only DKK 1.7m. (6) Price near the bottom: partial, −25% in a year and below the insider purchase price, but above the 2024 low (DKK 0.73).
Why this asymmetryOperations are close to break-even with low debt, so the downside is smaller than for most penny stocks, and France is a real binary upside. But the company is very small, the price is 3.3x sales with no profit, and large issue authorisations may dilute the upside.
How the score is built
From 100 to 54, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.71 DKK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −53%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −6MarginThe gross margin has risen to 29% (TTM) from negative in 2022–2024, but EBITDA is only just above zero (DKK 56k in Q2 2026 and 117k in H1), and the operating result is still negative (−DKK 0.6m TTM, −5.5%). Net income was −DKK 0.02 per share in H1.
- −3Quality of growthSales rose 133% in Q2 (DKK 4.0m vs 1.7m), but a large part comes from the acquisition of CannGros, which was to contribute DKK 4–6m a year. Germany contributed less than expected, so growth rests almost only on Denmark.
- −5MoatStenocare is a small importer and distributor of medical cannabis oil and dried flowers with 4 employees and revenue of DKK 11.5m. The products can be replaced by other suppliers, and market access depends on permits and regulation in each country.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 12m (2021) to 43.4m (dilution 107% in 2025 and 57% over 12 months), and 2024 ended with a loss of DKK 34.5m incl. write-downs. CannGros was bought for 5m new shares (11.6% dilution).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 3.3 vs 8.8-55 in 2021-2025, i.e. the lowest ever, but P/B is 4.5 (1.8-6.8 historically), and price to tangible equity is 21.6 after goodwill from CannGros.
- −6Peers and absolute levelEV of about DKK 38m for 11.5m in revenue, 29% gross margin and zero EBITDA. Larger cannabis producers with real revenue typically trade at 1-2x sales, so 3.3x is expensive for a small retailer without profit.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −6RegulationGermany has changed the rules for prescription and reimbursement of medical cannabis to save money, which has hit access for approx. 350,000 patients and Stenocare's German sales. In France, the timing of the application process is outside the company's control.
- −5Dilution riskThe general meeting in April 2026 was to decide on an authorization to issue shares for up to 25 m kr. nominal (at 0.08 kr. per share up to about 312 m shares, over 7 times the current number), also below market price, plus a warrant authorization of 20 m kr. nominal.
- −3Thin liquidityCash was only DKK 1.7m at 30/6-2026, so even a small setback (e.g. in Denmark or in inventory) may require new capital. The stock trades about DKK 31 thousand per day.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Insider buyingHHTM ApS (board member Henrik Elbæk) bought 363,232 shares at DKK 1.29–1.50 in December 2025 for a total of DKK 0.5m, i.e. well above the current price.
- +1Operational turnaroundFifth quarter in a row with positive EBITDA, and operating cash flow after financial items was +1.6 m kr. in Q2 2026. The equity ratio has risen from 27% to 70%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Market cap: 43.40m shares (Q2 report) × DKK 0.90 = DKK 39m vs Nordnet's 41m (small deviation, probably price date). The 2026 figures include CannGros (bought for shares in November 2025), so organic growth is not known. The report is unaudited. The status of the Danish medical cannabis pilot scheme, the German rules and the board's authorisations have only been partially reviewed. Medical cannabis does not fit the list perfectly; 'Pharma & medtech' is closest.
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