Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Strategy
Strategy
38
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and earnings quality−10
- Debt and preference shares−10
- The financing model breaks−7
Strengths
- No documented strengths.
How the score is built
From 100 to 38, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 130.76 USD
- Median analyst target
- 215.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +64.4%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 165.00 – 435.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −51%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 5.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10Margin and earnings qualityThe software business still generates only about USD 0.5bn in revenue (unchanged since 2021), and operating cash flow is negative (−USD 20m TTM). The net result of −USD 31.4bn TTM is pure bitcoin price movement – there is no underlying earnings to carry the capital structure.
- −6Quality of growth per shareThe share count rose 24.6% over a year (5.6% in the latest quarter alone); market value grew from USD 46bn to 63bn, while the price only went from 152 to USD 165. The growth is issuance, not value creation per share.
- −6Capital allocationThe holding was bought at an average price of about USD 66,000–75,000 per BTC, financed with preferred shares at 8–12% dividend and convertible loans; with bitcoin around cost price, the preferred coupons give a negative spread for common shareholders.
- −5MoatSpot bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC) give the same exposure without debt and coupons, and several bitcoin treasury companies compete for the same capital; the mNAV premium has fallen from about 3x in 2024 to about 1.1x.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−7 of −35
- −1Price vs own history (mNAV)mNAV of approx. 1.1–1.2x is below the historical median (approx. 1.5–2x), but P/B has risen from 0.9 at the end of 2025 to 2.0.
- −3Peers and alternativeOne still pays a premium over the bitcoin value after deducting USD 6.75bn of debt and USD 15.24bn of preferred shares, while an ETF trades at 1.0x NAV without coupon obligations.
- −3Absolute price levelNo earnings or FCF to price: P/S 127, EV USD 67.5bn, FCF −USD 41m and earnings yield −50%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−26 of −35
- −10Debt and preference sharesUSD 6.75bn in debt and USD 15.24bn in preferred shares (STRC 12%, STRF 10%, STRK 8%) require an estimated USD 1.5bn a year, but operations generate no cash; payments rest on a USD reserve of 4.8bn (about 2.8 years of cover) and bitcoin sales.
- −7The financing model breaksSTRC fell below USD 80 vs 100 at par, and in the week to 2 August 2026 Strategy sold 1,638 BTC at about USD 64,000 to pay preferred dividends and buy back STRC; bitcoin purchases are paused, and a framework allows the sale of up to 20,800 BTC.
- −6Concentration and volatilityAlmost all assets are a single asset class; beta 3.57 and a price drop of 53% over 52 weeks. 8% of the shares are sold short.
- −3GovernanceMichael Saylor controls the votes via class B shares with 10 votes per share; the strategy depends on one person, and minority shareholders have limited influence on issuance.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 0 findings±0 of +15
- No findings recorded.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Bitcoin treasury company (formerly MicroStrategy) does not fit the industry list – placed under finance; earnings are driven by the fair value of about 840,000 BTC, so P/E, PEG and forward P/E are meaningless; mNAV (about 1.1–1.2x) is taken from secondary sources and depends on the bitcoin price day by day; the price of USD 0 in the Nordnet data is a data error – stockanalysis shows USD 164.55; tax matters (CAMT) and accounting rules not investigated
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