Rankings Pharma & medtech Tempus AI
Tempus AI
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin / earnings quality−7
- EV/earnings−6
- Dilution−6
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Diversified customer base / bookings+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 78.48 USD
- Median analyst target
- 80.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +1.9%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 50.00 – 100.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −13%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −7Margin / earnings qualityTTM operating margin −19.7%, EBITDA margin −14.1%. The Q2 2026 GAAP profit of $5.6m is an accounting effect: $98.5m of unrealised gains on securities; the operating result was −$74.9m and the non-GAAP net loss −$7.7m. Adj. EBITDA only $8.0m in Q2 and about $65m guided for 2026 (about 4% margin). Gross margin improved to 64.4% (62.0%).
- −3Quality of growthQ2 growth 22% (Diagnostics +20%, Data & Applications +28%, Insights +36%, oncology volume +31%), but hereditary (Ambry) only +5%. Growth slows from about 83% in 2025 (acquisition-driven) to about 25% in 2026; about 76% of revenue is still low-margin diagnostics (62.6% gross margin).
- −3Moat / segment of the futureLarge multimodal data set, collaborations with 19 of the 20 largest pharma companies, NRR about 126% and remaining TCV > $1.1bn (of which about $300m potential opt-ins). But the CGP testing market is competitive (Foundation, Guardant, Caris), and AI/foundation-model revenue is still small.
- −5Capital allocationSerial acquisitions (Ambry, Paige, Deep 6 in 2025) and now Personalis at about $1.5bn EV – about a year's revenue for a company with negative ROIC (−11.6%), paid mainly in shares. Funded with about $1.2bn of convertible debt. Stock-based pay up from $23m (Q1 2025) to $54m (Q2 2026) per quarter.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −2P/S vs own history and peersP/S about 7.8 trailing and about 7.0 forward (on 2026 guidance of $1.6bn) at $61.90, against 7.7 (2024) and 8.3 (2025) – in line with its short history. Cheaper than peers: Natera P/S 22.0 and Guardant 18.9 (21 Oct 2026). At the peak on 5 Oct ($83.55) P/S was about 10.5.
- −6EV/earningsNo meaningful P/E (trailing GAAP loss, forward adj. EPS 2026 −$0.25 / 2027 −$0.05). EV of about $11.8bn against guided adj. EBITDA of about $65m = about 180x. EV/sales about 8.2. The price rests entirely on future margin expansion.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−23 of −35
- −3Cash flow / cash runwayFCF TTM −$263m (OCF −$237m). H1 2026 OCF −$80.8m (H1 2025: −$61.5m); FCF Q1 −$81.5m, Q2 −$13.7m. Cash and securities of $820.7m (30 Jun), so the runway is not urgent, but FCF is not positive despite positive adj. EBITDA.
- −3Debt / convertiblesConvertible senior notes of $1,172.8m net plus a convertible note of $187.9m. Net debt about $628m. Debt/equity 3.25. A new 0% 2032 convertible of $460m (conversion $69.26, capped call $98.94) was used to repay the term loan – cheaper, but it pushes dilution into the future.
- −6DilutionShare count up 5.1% year on year (180.4m). Stock-based pay $55.6m in Q2 (about 14.5% of revenue). Personalis: about 95m shares (Tempus owns about 12%) at $16.25 in Tempus shares (ratio max 0.3356) – at $62 about 25m new shares (about 14%), about 7% if Tempus pays 50% in cash. On top come up to 9.3m shares from the 2032 convertible.
- −5Insider tradingOnly selling, no buying: about $116m sold by insiders over about 6 months, of which about $96m by CEO Eric Lefkofsky (including 200,000 shares at $80.57 and 250,000 at $77.47 near the price peak in Sep/Oct 2026). The CFO, chief legal officer, data CEO and several board members have also sold.
- −2GovernanceA dual-class structure (5.04m B shares) and 34.6% insider ownership give Lefkofsky control. Related-party revenue $22.0m in Q2 ($43.7m in H1), mostly in Data. An AI-washing lawsuit after Spruce Point's short report (2025) was withdrawn, but the issue lingers.
- −3Customer / payer riskClinical orders made up $264.4m (about 69% of revenue in Q2) and are paid by Medicare, Medicaid and commercial insurers (30–120 days to pay). That creates dependence on ADLT pricing and MolDx coverage. Hereditary grows only 5%. The Medicare share is not quantified in the material read.
- −1Execution / integrationIntegrating Personalis on top of three acquisitions in 2025. Personalis can walk away if TEM falls below $46, and there is a mutual break fee of $76.8m. Vote on 30 Nov 2026. Q3 results on 2 Nov 2026. The shares have fallen 26% from $83.55 (5 Oct) in 2.5 weeks, showing high volatility.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 revenue guidance raised to $1.595–1.605bn (about 25% growth) and adj. EBITDA to about $65m. Adj. EBITDA swung from −$5.6m to +$8.0m year on year.
- +2Diversified customer base / bookingsAbout $200m in new data licences in Q2 (BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, Incyte and others), an expanded Moderna/Merck collaboration (7 Oct) and an extended Recursion licence. FDA approval of xT Tumor Only and 510(k) clearance for ECG-MR.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price $61.90 intraday 22 Oct 2026 at 14:38 EDT (−8.65% on the day; close 21 Oct: $67.76). Price path verified: $58.74 (10 Sep) -> $83.55 (5 Oct) -> ~$62 now. Q2 2026 (30 Jul): revenue $382.5m (+22%); the GAAP profit of $5.6m comes from $98.5m of unrealised gains on securities – operating result −$74.9m, non-GAAP net loss −$7.7m; adj. EBITDA $8.0m. 2026 guidance $1.595–1.605bn and adj. EBITDA about $65m (excl. Personalis). P/S now about 7.8 trailing (not 9.7 – that applied at ~$82). Personalis acquisition ($16.25/share, EV about $1.5bn, in shares with up to 50% cash optional; vote 30 Nov 2026). Q3 results 2 Nov 2026. Not examined: Medicare share of revenue (not quantified in the 10-Q excerpt), exact terms of the 2030 convertibles, Lefkofsky's voting share via B shares, revision points. Own multiple history only about 2 years (IPO June 2024).
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
