Rankings Pharma & medtech Vaxcyte
Vaxcyte
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Quality of growth−6
- Multiples vs own history and peers−6
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Positive phase 3 data+3
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 60.62 USD
- Median analyst target
- 121.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +99.6%
- Analysts
- 11
- Target range
- 75.00 – 163.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +34%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−22 of −30
- −12MarginNo revenue and a net loss of $1.06bn TTM ($767m in 2025, $464m in 2024); the loss grows in step with the phase 3 programmes and build-up of production.
- −6Quality of growthEarliest revenue follows an approval that requires OPUS-2 and OPUS-3 data in the first half of 2027 and a BLA in the first half of 2028; the paediatric programme awaits phase 2 data for VAX-31 in the first half of 2027 and has not yet started phase 3.
- −4Moat and competitionVAX-31 covers 31 serotypes vs 20 for Pfizer's Prevnar 20 and 21 for Merck's Capvaxive, but the market is a duopoly of two giants with established sales, recommendations and their own next-generation vaccines; Vaxcyte has no sales organisation yet.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersMarket cap $10.0bn and EV $8.6bn with no revenue; P/B 3.3 vs 2.3–4.8 at year-ends 2021–25. The stock is up 45% in a year and about 32% on the data day, so a large part of a successful adult market is already priced in.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −6Cash burn and dilutionFCF was -$921m TTM, and stock-based compensation $151m; the share count rose 4.9% in a year. On 5 Oct the company raised about $1bn: 7.4m shares at $64 plus warrants and $500m in convertible bonds (1.5%, 2032), which cause further dilution.
- −6Clinical and regulatory riskOPUS-1 (3,572 adults over 50) met the primary endpoints and non-inferiority vs Prevnar 20 on all 20 shared serotypes, but vs Capvaxive serotypes 3 and 12F missed the predefined threshold of 0.667 (they cleared the historical threshold of 0.5). Two phase 3 studies and regulatory review remain.
- −4Macro and regulationSales depend on ACIP/CDC recommendations and on being able to displace Pfizer and Merck in procurement contracts; the company itself cites recommendations, pricing and competition as material risks, and US vaccine policy has become less predictable.
- −2Share price riskShort interest is 11.0% of shares with 12 days to cover, and beta is 1.23; the stock is binary around the upcoming data points.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+7 of +15
- +4Net cashCash and investments of about $2.5bn as of 30 Jun ($1.49bn short-term + $1.02bn long-term) and only $115m in debt; with the October offering about $3.4bn, equal to over three years of burn.
- +3Positive phase 3 dataOPUS-1 met all primary immunogenicity and safety endpoints on 5 Oct 2026 with a safety profile like the comparator vaccines and no vaccine-related serious adverse events.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Biotech with no revenue; the first possible approval requires OPUS-2/-3 data (H1 2027) and a BLA in H1 2028. The cash position of $2.5bn is as of 30 Jun and excludes the offering of about $1bn (closed 9 Oct), so Q3 figures (expected 3 Nov) are not included. The conversion price on the bonds was not found. Insider trading, Lonza dependence in manufacturing and ACIP/CDC vaccine policy have not been examined in detail. Analysts' price targets (median $121) price in a commercial breakthrough that is not yet proven.
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