Rankings Pharma & medtech Zealand Pharma
Zealand Pharma
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and core operations−10
- Moat and future segment−6
- Partner risk (survodutide)−5
Strengths
- Net cash+4
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 232.70 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 375.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- +61.2%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 290.00 – 595.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- −55%
- P/E (trailing)
- 6.0
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −10Margin and core operationsRevenue of DKK 4.6bn (TTM) is almost entirely the DKK 4.5bn Roche milestone in Q2. Without it the company has no product revenue, and operating costs of DKK 2.7–3.3bn in 2026 make the core business clearly loss-making; operating cash flow TTM −DKK 1.75bn.
- −4Quality of growthNo recurring growth: revenue was DKK 55–340m in 2021–2024, jumped to 9.2bn in 2025 on the Roche deal and is expected −48% in 2026 with EPS of 25 vs 90. Results follow milestones, not sales.
- −6Moat and future segmentThe lead asset petrelintide delivered 10.7% weight loss after 42 weeks (phase 2), 1–2 points below expectations and called 'undifferentiated'. The amylin field is crowded with Novo, Lilly and others, so an obesity position is not secured despite good tolerability.
- −2Capital allocationBuybacks of up to DKK 1.3bn (6.7% own shares in week 39) are paid from cash, while FCF is −DKK 1.8bn (TTM); at the same time future rusfertide royalties have been sold to Royalty Pharma for USD 100m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.01 vs 5.9–13.7 in 2021–2024 and 2.2 at the end of 2025; EV DKK 4.2bn vs 17–42bn in 2023–2025. There is no P/E history (losses before 2025), so only P/B and EV can be compared – both at the bottom.
- −3Absolute price levelThe trailing P/E of 6.95 rests on a one-off milestone; FCF yield −9.8%, no dividend, and forward EPS for 2026 (DKK 25) falls 72%. The market pays DKK 4.2bn above the cash for a pipeline without an approved obesity product.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −5Partner risk (survodutide)In Boehringer's phase 3 of survodutide, 19% dropped out because of gastrointestinal side effects vs 2.9% on placebo; the stock fell 22.7% in one day in June and was down almost 50% year to date. The royalty value from survodutide is therefore uncertain.
- −4Binary pipeline dependenceThe share price hangs on petrelintide, and the next big trigger is the ZUPREME-Combo data (petrelintide + Roche's CT-388) in 2027, which is also called the biggest risk. The stock has fallen 38% over 52 weeks on two data setbacks.
- −3Regulatory executionDasiglucagon (congenital hyperinsulinism) is still awaiting a new US filing, and glepaglutide is running another phase 3 trial (EASE-5); none of the late-stage assets outside obesity has reached the market.
- −2Macro and regulationTrump's order for up to 80% lower drug prices and the price pressure on GLP-1s in the US hit future earnings from obesity drugs before Zealand has a product on the market.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+4 of +15
- +4Net cashNet cash DKK 14.0bn (DKK 206 per share) vs a market value of DKK 18.3bn – about 77% of the share price is cash, and debt is DKK 0.4bn; the cash covers several years of research.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Biotech without product revenue: trailing P/E and ROIC rest on one-off milestones from Roche (DKK 9.2bn in 2025, DKK 4.5bn in Q2 2026) and are not representative; peers (other amylin/obesity biotechs) not systematically compared
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