Rankings Software, cloud & internet Verimatrix
Verimatrix
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Debt and balance sheet−7
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Refinancing+2
- Positive FCF+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.34 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 204m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 4.5 / 22.6m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1%
Bull case
The subscription model drives growth in Anti-Piracy from 2027, EBITDA rises to USD 6–8m on USD 45–50m in revenue, and the lower interest rate lifts FCF to USD 4–5m. At 8x EBITDA and falling debt, equity value could be EUR 50–60m, i.e. about 2x. 3–10x requires an acquisition by a larger player in content protection.
Bear case
Pay-TV customers are cutting back, licences keep falling 20%+, and EBITDA is disappearing. With USD 17m in net debt, equity can quickly become insignificant, and an issue at EUR 0.15–0.20 or a debt conversion could halve the share price.
Catalysts
- Approx. March 2027Annual accounts 2026: does it reach the Anti-Piracy EBITDA target of at least USD 3m, and does revenue return to growth?gradual abcbourse.com
- OngoingGrowth in subscription ARR (USD 16.1m, +11%), which must offset declining licences and maintenancegradual morningstar.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – a real business with positive FCF and debt extended to 2029, but with declining revenue, net debt of approx. 5–6x EBITDA and a negative Altman Z-score
Next financingNo acute need: positive FCF, and the debt has been refinanced to June 2029 at 6% interest (from 12%). Proceeds from the XTD sale (approx. USD 5m) were used to repay debt. No restructuring, debt conversion or reverse split. The risk is that revenue keeps falling, so that leverage (approx. 5–6x EBITDA) becomes a problem again before 2029.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. Employee share programmes (free shares/options) exist, but number and strike have not been examined. The share count has been largely unchanged around 86–87m since 2021.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail – no insider trades found in the searches. Stockanalysis shows insiders at 3.2%.
Largest ownersNot verified. Stockanalysis shows insiders 3.2%, institutions 5.1% and free float c. 52.7m of 87.3m shares, so one or more larger owners hold c. 35–40%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 27m. (2) Hot theme: partial – cybersecurity is hot, but anti-piracy for pay-TV is not. (3) Upcoming milestones: no – only gradual earnings reports. (4) Major partner: no – the customers are operators, no strategic partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – positive FCF and debt extended to 2029. (6) Price near the bottom after a large decline: no – the price is up 59% in a year, although it is still approx. 76% below the 2021 level.
Why this asymmetryThe most robust of the four: positive FCF and refinanced debt, so the zero risk is lower. The upside is, however, limited by falling revenue, high leverage and a share price that has already risen 59%. There is no binary catalyst that can give 5–10x.
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.29 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 0.30 EUR
- Upside to median
- +4.5%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 0.30 – 0.30 EUR
- 52-week change
- +73%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −8MarginAdjusted EBITDA margin of only 9% in H1 2026 (USD 1.9m vs USD 2.8m a year earlier) and an operating result around zero. Gross margin has fallen from 73% (2021) to 63–65%, and the TTM operating margin is −13%.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from USD 88m (2021) to 46.5m (2025), and Anti-Piracy fell a further 11% in H1 2026. Subscriptions grew 9%, but licences fell 26% and maintenance 13%; total ARR is flat at USD 27.5m.
- −4MoatThe core business is content protection and anti-piracy for pay-TV and streaming, a mature and shrinking market with strong competitors (Irdeto, Nagra/Kudelski, Synamedia). The company has no clear pricing power: licence revenue is project-based and fluctuates.
- −6Capital allocationThe acquisition of Verimatrix Inc. in 2019 and the push into mobile security (XTD) ended in a goodwill write-down of USD 60m in 2025 and a divestment to Guardsquare that yielded only approx. USD 5m for debt repayment.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 1.24 vs 0.89-1.72 in 2021-2025 (in the middle of the range), but P/B 0.98 is above the whole history (0.22-0.85), after the price rose 59% in a year despite falling revenue.
- −5Absolute levelEV about EUR 45m corresponds to about 17x this year's EBITDA target of at least USD 3m and EV/FCF 19 for a company with falling revenue and an EBITDA margin of 9%. Software peers with negative growth typically trade at 6-10x EBITDA.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −7Debt and balance sheetNet debt USD 16.8m, approx. 5.6x the year's EBITDA target, and only USD 5.2m in cash. Altman Z-score −0.7 and current ratio 1.07. The refinancing removes the maturity risk until 2029, but gearing is high for a company with declining revenue.
- −3Customer concentration and project dependenceLicense revenue fell 26% in H1 2026 because a large contract in Q2 2025 was not repeated. Large one-off orders from few operators cause large swings.
- −3Credibility of the turnaroundManagement has promised growth in Anti-Piracy from 2026, but H1 2026 showed -11%. The sequential improvement over three quarters is not yet visible year over year, and analysts expect -7% in revenue for 2026.
- −2Share price riskBeta 1.65 and the price is still about 76% below the 2021 level (EUR 1.32), even after rising 59% in a year. Low trading (about 73,000 shares a day).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2RefinancingThe debt has been refinanced with maturity extended to June 2029 and the interest rate halved from 12% to 6%, saving about USD 1m a year; net debt fell from 20.2 to 16.8m USD in H1.
- +1Positive FCFTTM FCF of 2.7m and operating cash flow of 2.9m (FCF yield approx. 9%) without dilution; the share count has been largely unchanged.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The company reports in USD, while the stock trades in EUR. The amounts in the penny object are in EUR from stockanalysis (cash EUR 4.55m corresponds to USD 5.2m in the company's accounts). The net loss of USD 78.6m in 2025 is primarily due to a write-down of goodwill (USD 60m) and XTD assets (USD 3m); the underlying result is close to break-even. The TTM figures still include XTD (sold in February 2026). Largest owners and insider trades have not been reviewed. Only 2 analysts. Market cap calculated by us: 87.3m shares × EUR 0.313 ≈ EUR 27.3m ≈ DKK 204m.
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