Rankings Pharma & medtech VolitionRx

VolitionRx

Pharma & medtech · United StatesRank 680 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Going concern and runway−12
Margin−10
Capital allocation−8

Strengths

License agreements with large diagnostics companies+2

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 2
Price: 1.70 DKK
Market value: DKK 24m
Cash runway: 2 months
Cash / debt: 2.8 / 11.4m USD
Dilution, 12 months: +44%

Bull case

The USD 5m milestone is triggered, and one of the human partners (Sysmex or Werfen) signs a commercial licence with an upfront payment. 5–10m in new capital without dilution is 1.5–3 times the market cap (3.7m), so the share could be 3–5x from a very low level.

Bear case

No milestone in time: the cash runs out, and the company must do a new issue or ATM sales at USD 0.20 or lower plus a new reverse split. With negative equity of 33.5m and debt above market cap, shareholders could be wiped out in a restructuring.

Catalysts

12 Nov 2026Q3 report: cash after the Lind prepayment and financinggradual stockanalysis.com
Dec 2026Monthly repayments on the Lind loan from 2026 begin (probably in shares)gradual sec.gov
6 Aug 2027Deadline to regain NYSE American compliance (equity)binary sec.gov
No datePublication of the Nu.Q Vet study on lymphoma in cats triggers a contractual milestone of 5m USD (manuscript in peer review since May 2026)binary finance.yahoo.com

Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern, under two months of runway at 30/6, conversions at market price and negative equity of USD 33.5m

Next financingCash of USD 2.8m (30/6) vs spending of 5.2m per quarter gave under two months of runway; the company has since raised money via ATM/Lind conversions and prepaid the Lind loan of 7.5m (financing not disclosed). A new issue via the new S-3 is likely in Q4 2026. The contractual milestone of USD 5m on publication of the feline lymphoma study is not certain and is not included.

Warrants & convertiblesAbout 5.34m warrants with strike USD 0.60–13.20 (expiring up to 2030), of which 1.48m are from the June issue at about USD 1.55+. Lind convertibles: the 7.5m loan from 2025 was prepaid 14/9-2026; the 2026 loan (2.4m principal, about 2.0m outstanding) converts at near-market prices (about USD 0.23–0.27 in September) and is repaid monthly from December 2026. ATM programme with remaining capacity and a new S-3.

Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (Form 4 not reviewed in detail); insiders own 2.8%.

Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions c. 16% and insiders 2.8% (stockanalysis).

Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 3.7m. (2) Hot theme: partial – blood-based diagnostics (sepsis, cancer), but not a hot theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – USD 5m milestone on publication and possible license agreements, but undated. (4) Major partner: partial – Sysmex and Werfen, but only research/option agreements. (5) Funding 2+ years: no – under two months of runway as of 30/6. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −98% over 52 weeks and −83% since the June issue.

Why this asymmetryA single milestone of USD 5m is larger than the entire market cap, so there is a theoretical option. But the constant dilution via Lind and ATM, negative equity and acute cash shortage make the most likely course further dilution and a new reverse split.

How the score is built

From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

41Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 0.21 USD
Median analyst target: 20.00 USD
Upside to median: +9419.3%
Analysts: 5
Target range: 2.00 – 24.00 USD
52-week change: −98%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30

Margin
Revenue of USD 2.5m TTM vs a net loss of 26.1m; operating loss of 4.2m in Q2 2026 despite 32% lower costs. Negative equity of 33.5m.
ir.volition.com
−10
Quality of growth
Q2 revenue was flat at 0.4m USD (higher Nu.Q Vet sales offset by lower Discover revenue) and missed expectations. H1 +112% stems from a strong Q1 from a very low level.
investing.com
−4
Moat and commercialisation
Patented nucleosome platform and agreements with Sysmex, Werfen, Hologic and Revvity, but after more than ten years there is still only small revenue, and all human agreements are research or option agreements with confidential terms.
finance.yahoo.com
−4
Capital allocation
Repeated issues (October 2025 at 0.52 USD pre-split, June 2026 at 1.55 USD), ATM sales, a 1:20 reverse split in April 2026 and expensive convertible loans from Lind, whose conversion price was lowered from 11.43 to 1.55 USD. Share count +44% in a year after split adjustment.
sec.gov
−8

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35

Multiples vs own history and peers
Market cap USD 3.7m, EV 12.3m and P/S 1.5 (EV/revenue about 5) - far below own history, but negative equity and debt larger than market cap make the low multiple an expression of bankruptcy risk.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−26 of −35

Going concern and runway
10-Q states substantial doubt about going concern; cash was USD 2.8m as of 30/6-2026 vs an operating burn of 5.2m per quarter – under two months of runway without new capital. A new S-3 (shelf) was filed in August/September 2026.
sec.gov
−12
Convertible loans and dilution
The Lind loans went into default due to breach of the market value covenant (waived in May 2026). In September 2026 Lind converted at about USD 0.23-0.27 per share (2.16m new shares in a week, about +18%). The remaining loan of about 2m is repaid monthly from December 2026, probably in shares.
finance.yahoo.com
−8
Listing risk
NYSE American notice 6/2-2026 for too low equity (requirement USD 6m; it is -33.5m); plan accepted with deadline 6/8-2027. The price has fallen to USD 0.26 a few months after a 1:20 reverse split, so another split or delisting is real.
sec.gov
−6

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15

License agreements with large diagnostics companies
The Nu.Q NETs assay has been transferred to Sysmex' platform (June 2026), Werfen has an exclusive commercial option within APS, and Hologic co-markets Nu.Q Discover - external validation of the technology.
finance.yahoo.com
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Diagnostics company (Nu.Q blood tests for nucleosomes/NETs) with small revenue from Nu.Q Vet and Nu.Q Discover. Cash is as of 30/6-2026 (USD 2.8m); how the prepayment of the USD 7.5m Lind loan on 14/9-2026 was financed has not been found, so cash and debt today are uncertain. Terms (upfront/milestones) in the Sysmex, Werfen and Hologic agreements are confidential. Analysts' price targets (avg. USD 13.62, May 2026) are outdated after the price fall from 1.55 to 0.26 USD and give a misleading upside figure.