Rankings Pharma & medtech Xbrane Biopharma

Xbrane Biopharma

Pharma & medtech · SwedenRank 680 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Margin−9
Refinancing and going concern−9
Capital allocation−8

Strengths

Partner validation+2
Partner-funded pipeline+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

41Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 12.80 SEK
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: +22%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30

Margin
The gross margin was 5% in Q2 2026 and 14% in H1 (about 26% adjusted for one-off items), EBITDA −SEK 14.0m in H1 and operating result −28.2m in 2025 despite 85m in licence income. Product sales of Ximluci do not make money today.
storage.mfn.se
−9
Quality of growth
Revenue fell to SEK 64.1m in H1 2026 from 133.1 (-52%) because licence income disappeared; product sales rose to 63.8m (+31%), but Q2 was hit by a downward adjustment of accrued profit sharing of 5.5m due to lower final prices.
storage.mfn.se
−4
Capital allocation
Shareholders have been diluted almost totally: the price has fallen from SEK 13,100 (split-adjusted, 2021) to about 10, and market value from SEK 2.6bn to 0.2bn. The company has capitalized SEK 315m in development, and ROIC is −10.6%.
stockanalysis.com
−8
Market and moat
Ranibizumab (Lucentis) is a shrinking market (approx. 1bn EUR) dominated by Eylea and Vabysmo, and in the USA Byooviz and Cimerli have already launched. Ximluci is approved only as a vial in the EU; a pre-filled syringe is under development.
storage.mfn.se
−5

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/S is 2.57 vs 1.38 (2025), 1.66 (2024) and 1.25 (2023), and EV/Sales is 2.74 vs 0.77-2.60 in 2023-2025, i.e. more expensive than history on sales even though the gross margin has fallen. P/B 0.40 is misleading because of capitalised development and inventory.
stockanalysis.com
−7

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−23 of −35

Refinancing and going concern
Cash was SEK 49.5m at 30/6-2026, while the Fenja loan of SEK 60m (9% interest) falls due 31/1-2027. The company intends to pay it with Ximluci revenue from the US, which comes in 2027 at the earliest, and itself writes that there is material doubt about the ability to continue operations in the current form.
storage.mfn.se
−9
Binary FDA decision
FDA decides on Ximluci (ranibizumab) on 29/10-2026 after a CRL in October 2025 caused by a contract manufacturer. According to the company, the manufacturer has fixed all observations, but a new rejection would delay US revenue and worsen the refinancing.
mfn.se
−6
Customer concentration
All product revenue (SEK 46.6m in Q2) comes from one customer, STADA in Germany, and the profit share depends on STADA's end prices, which have already been marked down.
storage.mfn.se
−4
Value leakage to partner
Intas is now funding the Xdivane development, but all costs plus 18% a year are deducted from Xbrane's future profit share, Intas can buy out the profit share for 40 months of forecast, and the patents are pledged to Intas.
storage.mfn.se
−4

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15

Partner validation
Commercial partners at every stage: STADA (Europe, 24 markets), Valorum (USA), Intas/Accord (Xdivane, global) and JOINN (Xdarzane, development with no direct investment from Xbrane).
storage.mfn.se
+2
Partner-funded pipeline
Xdivane (nivolumab biosimilar, Opdivo approx. EUR 9bn) is in a registration study with approx. 340 patients, funded by Intas, with a BLA planned in Q4 2027 and launch at patent expiry in the US in December 2028.
storage.mfn.se
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

The share count is 20.6m after the 2025 reverse split (previously 1.5–2.6bn shares); historical prices on stockanalysis are split-adjusted. Quarterly spending (about SEK 18m) is the company's own cash flow incl. capitalized development (Q2: operations −4.8 and capitalization −12.4m); stockanalysis' FCF and P/B (0.4) look too good, because SEK 315m in capitalized development and 175m in inventory (of which 113m pledged) make up most of the equity. License income of SEK 84.5m in H1 2025 (India, one-off) distorts revenue growth and 2025 multiples. The Fenja loan of SEK 60m falls due 31/1-2027 and is not included in the company's own financing assessment. Dilution over the last 12 months is 0, but the directed issue registered in September 2025 increased the share count by about 68%. No analyst forecast (404). Short interest and largest owners are not verified.