Willis Towers Watson

Organic growth 5% in Q2, but revenue has only gone from $9.0bn to 10.1bn since 2021 (about 2.5% a year), and FY2025 fell 2.2%. In Health, Wealth & Career (half of revenue) Health alone carries growth: Wealth +2%, Career 0% and Benefits Delivery & Outsourcing +1%. The Newfront acquisition (about $250m of revenue in 2026) flatters reported growth.

Adjusted operating margin 19.5% in Q2 (+100 bp) and 23.8% TTM, a clear improvement from 19.4% in 2021. It is still the lowest among the big brokers, though, and the target of about 30% is only reached in 2028 and requires the Propel programme.

WTW sold Willis Re to Gallagher in 2021 and is now going back into reinsurance broking via a Willis Re joint venture that costs about $0.30 of EPS in 2026. At the same time, acquisitions of $1.04bn (Newfront) and buybacks of $1.77bn TTM are partly debt-funded.

Forward P/E 13.9 vs 15.6–18.1 in 2021–25, EV/EBITDA 11.6 vs 12.2–13.8 and FCF yield 6.2% vs 2.6–6.5%. The stock is cheaper than Aon, Marsh and Gallagher. But the GAAP P/E is 17.9, because the adjusted figures exclude Propel and integration costs, and the discount reflects real AI and pricing risk.

The stock fell 13% on 9/2/2026, the biggest drop among the brokers, when OpenAI approved an insurance app in ChatGPT (Tuio) that gives quotes and soon sales without an intermediary. The threat mainly applies to less complex volume work.

Commercial insurance prices are softening in almost all markets; growth will have to come from exposure and new business rather than price increases. Brown & Brown is already at negative organic growth.

After the Transformation programme (2021–24) now comes Propel: about $625m of cash costs and $25m non-cash, kept out of the adjusted figures, with staff cuts. On top come transaction and integration costs of $102m in H1. Restructuring is effectively a recurring cost.

Clients are postponing discretionary projects because of a weaker labour market; Career project work fell almost 50% in the Middle East, and commissions in the individual marketplace fell outside enrolment periods.

Net debt has risen from $3.74bn to 5.44bn in six months (net debt/EBITDA 1.42 → 1.93); net borrowing of $1.22bn TTM funds buybacks and Newfront. Altman Z-score 1.39.

A law firm is investigating a possible securities lawsuit after the Q1 share price fall; no filed case found.

Open-market buying after the Q1 fall: Risk & Broking head Lucy Clarke bought 1,896 shares for $499,340 (6/5/2026), and CEO Carl Hess bought 2,000 shares for $510,160 (4/5). The only sale in 2026 is the COO's 730 shares ($250,000) in August.

The share count has fallen 4% in a year, and $8.9bn was bought back in 2021–25; a new $1.5bn authorisation, and at least $1bn is expected to be bought back in 2026 (partly debt-funded, see Debt).

A global client base spread across broking, consulting and administration; no customer concentration.