Rankings Financial data & insurance broking ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO
87
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Profitability−4
- Quality of growth−2
Strengths
- Cost discipline+2
- Capital and payouts+2
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 87, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 39.52 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 47.40 EUR
- Upside to median
- +19.9%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 29.00 – 54.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +54%
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.2
- Forward P/E
- 10.8
- PEG
- 0.58
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−7 of −30
- −4ProfitabilityROE only 9.1% over 12 months (8.5–11.5% in 2021–2025, 12.1% in Q2) and cost/income 56% year to date; clearly below ING (RoTE 17%) and Nordic big banks. Even after Q2 the bank only just earns its cost of capital.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue fell 2.1% in 2025 and EPS 9.7%; asset interest income is flat despite loan growth because the margin falls 2 bp on many state-guaranteed NHG mortgages in a 'very competitive' housing market.
- −1Capital allocationGrowth is bought: Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe (2024) and now NIBC, which costs 70–75 bp of CET1; restructuring costs are taken upfront, and the full synergies come only after 2028.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.30 vs 0.48–0.91 in 2021–2025 and trailing P/E 15.7 vs 4.5–12.1; forward P/E 11.9 vs 6.1–12.8. The share price is +61% in a year and about 4.6 times the 2022 level (9.58 → EUR 43.77), while EPS has risen only about 40%.
- −2PeersForward P/E 11.9 and P/TBV 1.32 at an ROE of about 9–12% vs ING (11.6 and 1.86 at a 17% RoTE); ABN trades on the same earnings multiple as ING despite markedly lower returns.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−7 of −35
- −2Deposit margin and competitionThe deposit margin of 119 bp may, according to management, come under pressure from competition and customers moving to higher-interest savings; the mortgage market is 'very competitive'.
- −2Credit qualityCredit costs of only 4 bp and impairments of 24m in Q2, while stage 3 coverage has fallen to about 14%; an extremely low level that normalises in a downturn, and management itself mentions inflation risk from the energy conflict in the Middle East.
- −1Earnings qualityManagement is unsure whether the elevated clearing income can last; part of the Q2 lift is therefore not necessarily recurring.
- −1State ownership and overhangThe state (via NLFI) remains a major shareholder and is selling down continuously, including by selling shares into ABN's own buybacks (20% of the programme in 2026); only 550 of 815m shares are free float, so new sales are a lasting overhang.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Cost discipline2026 cost guidance lowered to about EUR 5.5bn, 253 fewer FTEs in Q2 and about 45% of the 2028 reduction achieved; Q2 net profit +29% to 781m
- +2Capital and payoutsPro forma CET1 15.9% (high among European banks) and a pledge of at least EUR 7.5bn in distributions and up to 100% of net profit in 2026–2028; dividend 1.50 + buybacks 0.52bn (TTM) are below net profit of 2.5bn.
- +1Raised guidanceGuidance for commercial net interest income in 2026 raised to about EUR 6.8bn (incl. NIBC), and the interim dividend set at EUR 0.68.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Bank: EV, ROIC and FCF are not meaningful; valued on P/B, P/TBV and P/E, and payouts are measured against net profit. The trailing P/E of 15.7 is on reported EPS of 2.78; the forward P/E of 11.9–14.2 is on adjusted EPS and assumes +26% EPS in 2026, partly from consolidating NIBC. NIBC is consolidated from Q3 and lowers CET1 by 70–75 bp (pro forma 15.9%). Stockanalysis' dividend per share (1.24, 2.8% yield) looks low against the forecast (1.70 for 2026). The state's stake (NLFI) has not been confirmed exactly; free float 550m of 815m shares. The 2021 money-laundering settlement is not included because no working source was found. The median price target is only about 3% above the price. Q3 report on 11 Nov.
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