Rankings Semiconductors Aeluma
Aeluma
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−7
- Absolute price level and peers−7
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Validation from partners+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 7.52 USD
- Median analyst target
- 22.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +192.6%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 16.00 – 25.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −54%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−26 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −228% and net loss USD 9.2m on USD 4.5m revenue in FY2026 (prior year −3.0m). Operating costs rose to USD 14.6m. ROIC −16%. The loss is counted only here.
- −7Quality of growthRevenue fell to USD 4.5m (4.7m the year before), and Q4 fell 56% to 0.6m. Almost all of it is public development contracts; there is no commercial product revenue yet, and the NRE agreements with AI datacom customers are still only in negotiation.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count rose 34% over a year (USD 43.5m raised net in FY2026, of which 20.1m via ATM in Q4 at USD 24.87). Administrative expenses almost doubled to USD 7.1m and are higher than R&D (4.7m).
- −4MoatThe technology (compound semiconductors on large, cheap wafers) is interesting, and there are agreements with Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical on wafer capacity, but it is not commercially proven against established optics suppliers such as Coherent and Lumentum.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 44.6 vs 82.4 (FY2026), 52.2 (FY2025) and 46.7 (FY2024); P/B 4.4 vs 7.1-19.2. Lower than before, but on falling revenue.
- −7Absolute price level and peersEV USD 199m for USD 4.5m in public contract revenue and a growing loss. Photonics peers such as POET (EV about USD 559m, revenue 1.7m) are even more expensive, so the sector is priced on expectations, not on figures.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−18 of −35
- −5Insider sellingCEO and co-founder Jonathan Klamkin has sold continuously in 2026 via a 10b5-1 plan: 50,000 shares at USD 18.05 (4/3, about USD 0.9m), 20,000 at 13.10 (1/4), 20,000 at USD 22–26 (1/6) and several sales in July–September; also gifts of 40,000 shares.
- −4Lowered expectations and delaysIn Q3 (the March quarter) revenue missed expectations by about 10%, and full-year guidance was lowered to USD 4.2–4.6m (from 4–6m) because of delayed public contracts (shutdown). The stock is −44% in 3 months.
- −3Short interest3.62m shares are sold short, i.e. 18.8% of the shares and 24.7% of free float (7.9 days to cover).
- −3Customer concentrationRevenue comes from a few public customers (NASA, U.S. Navy, DARPA and others); only USD 2.3m is booked for FY2027, so revenue depends on new awards and budgets.
- −3Execution toward commercial revenueManagement gives no timeline for product revenue; FY2027 is about technology and product development, more staff and new MOCVD capacity, i.e. rising burn before revenue.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashCash of USD 56.0m and debt of 2.0m at 30/6-2026, i.e. net cash of USD 54m (USD 2.80 per share, approx. 21% of market cap).
- +1Validation from partnersLetter of intent for up to USD 30m from the Commerce Department's CHIPS R&D Office as well as manufacturing agreements with Tower Semiconductor and Sumitomo Chemical.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price is above DKK 3). Aeluma develops photodetectors and quantum dot lasers on large semiconductor wafers (InGaAs etc. on silicon/germanium) for AI data centres, defence and aerospace. Revenue is still almost entirely government development contracts (NASA, Navy, DARPA and others). Fiscal year July–June; latest figures are FY2026 (as of 30/6-2026, published 16/9-2026). Price USD 13.12 and market cap USD 252.8m from stockanalysis 2/10-2026 (Nordnet showed DKK 1,618m). The total ATM programme (size and remaining amount), warrants and options have not been reviewed in the S-3/424B. The CFO and the largest individual shareholders are not verified. The CHIPS support of up to USD 30m is only a letter of intent (LOI). Quarterly burn is an estimate from the Q4 loss, because operating cash flow for the year (−USD 3.3m) was held down by contract payments.
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