Rankings Commodities & uranium Boliden
Boliden
68
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- M&A and country risk−5
- Capital allocation−4
- Multiples vs own history−4
Strengths
- Solid balance sheet+1
- Dividend+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 68, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 500.80 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 550.00 SEK
- Upside to median
- +9.8%
- Analysts
- 15
- Target range
- 500.00 – 740.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- +17%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.0
- Forward P/E
- 10.1
- PEG
- 0.42
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−9 of −30
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has grown from SEK 68.6bn to 103.7bn since 2021, but EPS (TTM) is SEK 44.63 vs 45.37 in 2022 – growth comes from acquisitions (Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan in 2025) and metal prices, not a stronger business per share.
- −2ROICROIC 13.8% (TTM) vs WACC 9.7%; clearly below the 18–23% level of 2021–2022 despite even higher metal prices now, and only 10–12% in 2023–2025.
- −4Capital allocationInvestments of SEK 15–16bn a year swallow most of operating cash flow (FCF margin 4.6%); the balance sheet has gone from net cash of 2.1bn (2021) to net debt of SEK 18.5bn, and the share count rose 2.8% in a year.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−9 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.9 vs 10.2–13.6 forward in 2021–2025, EV/EBITDA 6.1 vs 5.1–7.7 and P/B 1.79 vs 1.31–1.91 – mid-range to top of the range, and that on earnings lifted by high metal prices (cyclical peak risk).
- −4FCF yieldP/FCF 30 and an FCF yield of only 3.3% (TTM); analysts expect FCF of just SEK 4.3bn in 2026, about 3% of the SEK 144bn market value.
- −1Analysts' price targetsMedian target SEK 520 vs a price of about 517; 12 of 15 analysts rate it hold, and Morgan Stanley (473) and UBS (500) are below the price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −5M&A and country riskAn agreement on 27 Aug to buy Votorantim's 64.7% of Nexa Resources (zinc/silver in Peru and Brazil) for about USD 1.31bn in new shares (7% dilution) plus a later cash offer for the rest. Banks criticise the lack of synergies, a higher risk and ESG profile and a break with the Nordic strategy; the stock fell about 3%.
- −4Operational incidentsAbnormal seismic activity stopped Garpenberg – the group's most profitable mine – from 14 March to the end of April; a SEK 700m write-down, and 2026 ore guidance cut from 3.7 to 1.5m tonnes (2.3m tonnes in 2027).
- −2ExecutionThe start-up of the expanded zinc plant in Odda is slower than expected, and planned maintenance at the smelters cost SEK 350m in Q2.
- −3Smelter marginsThe copper treatment charge (TC/RC) was set at USD 0/t for 2026 – the lowest ever – and the spot price was −USD 127/t in June; Smelters account for SEK 97bn of 104bn in revenue (before eliminations).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Solid balance sheetDespite acquisitions, net debt/EBITDA is only 0.70 and interest cover 13x; debt/equity 0.28.
- +1DividendA dividend of SEK 11 for 2025 (higher than expected) after zero for 2024; the payout of about SEK 3.1bn is below FCF of 4.8bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Cyclical: earnings follow metal prices (copper, zinc, gold, silver) and smelter treatment charges, so the trailing P/E looks low on high metal prices. The Nexa acquisition (7% dilution) has not yet closed (expected Q1 2027) and is not in the figures. Insider trading has not been examined.
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