Rankings Pharma & medtech Vistagen
Vistagen
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Clinical failures−12
- Margin−10
- Going concern and financing−9
Strengths
- Net cash above the market cap+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 2.03 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 90m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 31.7 / 0.8m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +31%
Bull case
FDA accepts one new phase 3 trial with LSAS as the endpoint, and a partner (e.g. in Asia, where AffaMed and Fuji have shown interest) funds it. The stock could then trade up toward the cash plus a pipeline value: 40–60 m USD market cap = 3–4x. Net cash at 30/6 alone was equal to about 0.70 USD per share, but it has been burned down since.
Bear case
FDA requires two new trials, no partner steps forward, and cash is down to 10–15 m in early 2027. Then comes a reverse split and a large issue or ATM sales at a low price, or a wind-down/reverse merger in which shareholders get little. A delisting to OTC makes the stock untradeable on Nordnet.
Catalysts
- 12 Nov 2026Q2 FY2027 report: cash at 30/9, burn and any update on the FDA meetinggradual stockanalysis.com
- 1 Feb 2027Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1; reverse split or delistingbinary tipranks.com
- No dateFDA meeting on a new registration path for fasedienol (one phase 3 trial with LSAS as the endpoint plus PALISADE data)binary globenewswire.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – two failed phase 3 trials, going concern warning and about 6 months of runway; net cash gives some floor in the short term, but it is being burned quickly
Next financingCash of USD 31.7m (30/6) lasts about 6-7 months at Q1 spending (-14.7m), i.e. to around the turn of 2026/27; the company says 'into 2027' and 'substantial doubt'. Spending falls once the PALISADE trials are complete, but a new phase 3 trial requires new capital or a partner. Probably ATM sales and/or an issue after a reverse split in H1 2027.
Warrants & convertiblesWarrants: 11.27m at USD 8.877 (expiring 4/10-2028) – far above the share price; 9.29m at USD 5.38 expired 29/8-2026. Options: 5.25m (avg. strike USD 6.33). No convertibles. ATM programme with Jefferies of USD 175m with 139.5m remaining at 30/6-2026 – the real source of dilution.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (Form 4 not reviewed in detail); insiders own only 0.37%.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 25% and insiders 0.4% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 14m. (2) Hot theme: no – anxiety/psychiatry is not a hot theme after two failures. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – FDA meeting without a date, no new efficacy data before a new trial. (4) Major partner: no – only small Asian licenses (AffaMed, Fuji). (5) Funding 2+ years: no – going concern and approx. 6 months of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −91% over 52 weeks and below net cash.
Why this asymmetryTrading below net cash gives some short-term support, and positive FDA dialogue may give a pop, but two failed phase 3 trials and rapid cash burn mean the cash will probably go to operations and not to shareholders. Dilution via ATM and a reverse split is the most likely course.
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.17 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +497.0%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 1.00 – 1.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −96%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginNo product sales; operating loss of USD 13–20m per quarter and a net loss of USD 67.6m TTM vs 2.5m in license income. ROE −166%.
- −4Quality of growthQuarterly revenue rose to USD 1.48m in Q1 FY2027, but 1.3m of that was a one-off payment from Fuji Pharma (the negotiation period has expired). The ongoing income from AffaMed is about 0.2m per quarter.
- −6Moat and pipelineThe lead candidate fasedienol (nasal spray for social anxiety) has now failed two phase 3 trials in a row; the rest of the pipeline (itruvone for depression, refisolone for hot flushes) is early-stage without a partner. The platform (pherine nasal sprays) has not been clinically validated.
- −5Capital allocationThe share count rose 31% over a year, and the company spent over USD 70m on R&D and administration in FY2026 (R&D 55m, up from 39m) on a program that failed. The 20% workforce reduction only came in March 2026.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersThe market cap (USD 13.7m) is below net cash (31m as of 30/6), EV is negative (−17m) and P/B 0.56 vs 1.0–4.0 in FY2022–25. Cheap on paper, but cash is being burned at approx. 15m per quarter, so the discount disappears quickly.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−26 of −35
- −12Clinical failuresPALISADE-3 missed its primary endpoint in December 2025 (stock −80%), and PALISADE-4 missed both primary and secondary endpoints in June 2026 (p=0.427). Only a post hoc analysis of very severe patients was nominally significant; a new registration path requires another phase 3 trial and FDA acceptance.
- −9Going concern and financing10-Q (14/8-2026) states 'substantial doubt' about going concern; cash of USD 31.7m only lasts into 2027. The Jefferies ATM program has USD 139.5m left, i.e. approx. 10 times the market cap, and was used in Q1 (1.58m shares).
- −5Listing riskBelow USD 1 since December 2025; Nasdaq notice 3/2-2026 and an extra 180 days to 1/2-2027. At USD 0.31 at least a 1:4 reverse split is required (the company did 1:30 in 2023); otherwise the share risks OTC, where Nordnet does not trade.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Net cash above the market capNet cash of USD 31m as of 30/6-2026 vs a market cap of 13.7m and almost no debt (0.8m in leasing).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Biotech without product sales; revenue (USD 2.5m TTM) is licence income from AffaMed and Fuji Pharma, of which the Fuji amount is one-off. Cash is as of 30/6-2026 (USD 31.7m); at the Q1 burn it is about 17–18m at the end of September (not reported yet). The FDA meeting on a new registration path for fasedienol has no public date. Largest owners and Form 4 trades have not been reviewed in detail. 4 analysts (all Hold, price target USD 1, updated July 2026).
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