Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Aon
Aon
69
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and credit−6
- Capital allocation−5
- Multiples vs own history and peers−4
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Diversified base+2
- Margin expansion+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 69, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 333.38 USD
- Median analyst target
- 362.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +8.6%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 259.00 – 435.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −2%
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.2
- Forward P/E
- 17.4
- PEG
- 1.65
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −3ROICROIC has fallen from 25.7% (2023) to 16.1% TTM after the NFP acquisition ($13.4bn in 2024) and falls again with USI.
- −2Quality of growthOrganic growth was 5% in all four segments in Q2, lower than in earlier years, and total revenue rose only 2% after the sale of NFP Wealth. Growth is increasingly bought (NFP, now USI).
- −5Capital allocationUSI is being bought for $17bn in cash (about $3bn of revenue) at 16.8–22 times EBITDA and is fully debt-funded. The deal is expected to dilute earnings in 2027, and it comes only two years after NFP.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 14.1 vs 18.5–23.5 in 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 12.3 vs 16.3–19.2 in 2022–25; P/FCF 17.8 vs 18.3–32.4. Pro forma with USI's debt and EBITDA, EV/EBITDA is about 13. Clearly below its own history, but the discount reflects higher leverage and AI risk.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−14 of −35
- −2Cash flowFree cash flow in H1 rose only 4% to $846m vs full-year guidance of double-digit FCF growth; the H1 buyback ($1.1bn) was larger than H1 FCF.
- −6Debt and creditOn 14/9 $13.5bn of bonds were issued at 5.35–6.45% (maturing 2029–2056). Gross debt rises from $15.9bn to about 29bn (about 4.3x EBITDA pro forma), and S&P has moved the outlook to negative. Buybacks are on hold.
- −2IntegrationUSI, with 10,500 employees and over 200 offices, has to be integrated right after the NFP integration was only completed on 30/6/2026. Mizuho cut its target from $398 to 366.
- −4Macro and AIMeta's Muse has revived the debate that AI could cut out the broker (BofA, 23/9), while insurance prices are softening. The stock is −24% over 52 weeks, and RSI is 23.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Insider buyingDirector Lester Knight bought 20,000 shares for $6.55m on 2/9 (after the USI news) and 4,000 shares for $1.28m in February. On the other side, the general counsel has sold about $3.3m over 12 months.
- +1Margin expansionAdjusted operating margin 28.9% in Q2 (+70 bp), and guidance of 70–80 bp margin improvement in 2026 was maintained.
- +2Diversified baseFour segments (Commercial Risk, Reinsurance, Health, Wealth), each with 5% organic growth, and a global client base; no customer concentration.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The USI acquisition ($17bn cash) has not closed (expected in Q4) and is funded with $13.5bn of new bonds; the 2.8–3.0x leverage target only in about 24 months. The share has fallen from about $340 to $272 since the deal was announced on 30/8. Price targets (median $387) have not yet been adjusted. Q3 results 30/10.
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