Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Arthur J. Gallagher
Arthur J. Gallagher
69
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−6
- ROIC−5
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Synergies and acquisition machine+2
- Diversified base and raised outlook+2
- Dividend+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 69, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 278.89 USD
- Median analyst target
- 295.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 253.00 – 388.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +12%
- P/E (trailing)
- 42.6
- Forward P/E
- 19.4
- PEG
- 1.30
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−15 of −30
- −5ROICROIC has fallen from 10.5% (2021) to 8.6%, 7.4%, 9.3% and 7.2% (2025) and 6.6% TTM, just above a WACC of 6.4%. The acquisitions (most recently AssuredPartners for about $14bn) fill the balance sheet with goodwill; Aon, by comparison, is at 16%.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has almost doubled since 2021 ($7.97bn to 15.1bn, +31% TTM), but growth is mainly bought: organic growth in Brokerage was 5% in Q2 (base commissions and fees only 4%). The share count has risen about 25% since 2021 (+6.6% in a year), and GAAP EPS has only gone from $4.37 to 6.03 and has fallen from $6.50 in 2024.
- −3Quality of earningsGAAP EPS in Q2 fell 11% to $1.25, while adjusted EPS rose 23% to $2.84. The gap is amortisation of customer lists and recurring one-offs: $113m of integration costs, $40m for severance and leases and $70m of acquisition-related adjustments in Q2 alone in Brokerage.
- −1MarginThe adjusted EBITDAC margin in Brokerage fell from 36.1% to 33.3% in Q2, mainly because Q2 2025 included about $144m of interest income on the AssuredPartners proceeds, but also because of higher IT costs. The net margin has fallen from 13.4% (2024) to 10.4% TTM.
- −3Capital allocationAn $8.5bn share issue and new debt funded AssuredPartners, and management now has capacity for about $10bn of further acquisitions over two years (30 signed term sheets with about $400m of revenue), while ROIC falls.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 16.4 vs 19.9–28.4 at year-ends 2021–25; EV/EBITDA 16.7 vs 20.1–25.7; P/FCF 25.7 vs 26.4–37.2. The cheapest in five years, but still the most expensive of the big brokers (Aon 14.1 and WTW 13.9 forward P/E), the GAAP P/E is 38, and the FCF yield only 3.9%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−10 of −35
- −3AI disintermediationThe stock fell 4.6% to $229.64 on 23/9 as insurance stocks were hit by fears that Meta Muse and AI agents could cut out the broker. The threat mainly applies to smaller commercial and personal clients, of which AssuredPartners has many.
- −3Falling insurance pricesPremiums on property renewals fell 6% (US retail −7%), and management expects only about 5% organic growth in Brokerage in Q3; growth will increasingly have to come from exposure and new business rather than price increases.
- −2DebtGross debt $14.1bn (13.6bn at year-end), net debt/EBITDA 3.0 and interest cover 4.6x. Interest paid has risen from $216m (2021) to 685m TTM, and the acquisition plans of about $10bn point to more debt.
- −2Insider tradingFive open-market sales in June–September totalling about $8.2m: general counsel Walter Bay ($3.2m, 24/8), VP Scott Hudson ($3.2m, 2/9), VP Christopher Mead ($0.9m) and controller Richard Cary (2 sales). No open-market purchases; the rest are option exercises and gifts.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Synergies and acquisition machineThe AssuredPartners synergy target has been raised to about $325m a year in early 2028, more than double the original $160m; 21 small acquisitions so far in 2026 with about $225m of annual revenue.
- +2Diversified base and raised outlookBroking, reinsurance, benefits and claims handling (Risk Management) across many countries. Risk Management grew 12% organically in Q2 with a 22.3% margin (+1.4 points), and the Q3 outlook has been raised to about 10%.
- +1Dividend15 years of dividend growth ($2.80, +7.8%); dividends ($693m) and buybacks ($480m) TTM together are just over half of FCF of $2.29bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Adjusted EPS ($13.13 expected for 2026) excludes amortisation of intangibles and integration costs, so GAAP EPS ($6.03 TTM) is less than half; all multiples on adjusted figures therefore look cheaper. The share fell 4.6% on 23/9 on AI fears (Meta Muse) and is −25% over 52 weeks. S&P's upgrade to BBB+ (March 2026) has not been confirmed and is not included. Q3 results 29/10.
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