Rankings Software, cloud & internet Applied Digital
Applied Digital
46
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−12
- Debt and financing needs−9
- Margin−8
Strengths
- Contracted revenue+5
How the score is built
From 100 to 46, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 16.22 USD
- Median analyst target
- 65.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +300.7%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 22.00 – 93.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −53%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −8MarginOperating margin -26% and net margin -53% TTM; operating losses every year since 2022, and the net loss attributable to shareholders was USD 237m in Q1 FY27 alone. ROIC -2.4% (not counted again).
- −4Quality of earningsOf HPC revenue of 262.6m USD in Q1 FY27, 183.5m was a one-off tenant fit-out payment and only 65.8m was recurring base rent; revenue growth of 322% therefore overstates recurring earnings.
- −6Capital allocation and dilutionStock-based compensation 66.5m USD in one quarter (19% of revenue), share count +24.7% over a year, and PIK preferred dividends of 60.1m USD in the quarter go to preferred shareholders ahead of common shareholders.
- −3MoatLeasing of power and buildings (powered shells) to hyperscalers is capital-intensive and competitive (IREN, Cipher, TeraWulf, Core Scientific and others); returns are determined by lease terms and the cost of financing, not by technology.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own history and peersEV/Sales 12.3 versus 5.2-25.5 in FY24-26 and P/S 8.2 versus 3.4-22; P/B 4.4 at the high end of 2.4-4.5 (FY24-26). Mid-range after a 50% share price fall since May, but measured on the running income (base rent + hosting + cloud about USD 600m annually) EV is about 18 times revenue for a loss-making company.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −9Debt and financing needsDebt 6.4bn USD versus cash 3.7bn (net debt approx. 3.5bn); interest expense rose to 77.4m USD in the quarter (8.0m a year earlier), interest cover is negative (-1.5), and FCF was -4.46bn TTM. Analysts expect FCF of -4.4bn in FY27, so more capital must be raised.
- −4Customer concentrationCoreWeave is the sole tenant of the entire Polaris Forge 1 (400 MW), and CoreWeave is itself highly leveraged; the rest of the 1.41 GW is with two unnamed hyperscalers.
- −3ExecutionIs building five campuses at the same time (Polaris Forge 1-3, Delta Forge 1-2) plus up to 1 GW in Finland; delays in construction or power connection postpone rental income while interest keeps running.
- −2Insider sellingCEO Wes Cummins sold 165,000 shares for 6.0m USD in January 2026, insiders sold 244,593 shares for 9.0m in a quarter, and Nvidia sold its entire stake of 177m USD in February 2026.
- −2Market signalShort interest of 18.7% of shares (21.7% of float) and beta of 6.0; the stock is down 15% over a year.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+5 of +15
- +5Contracted revenueApprox. 1.41 GW of critical IT load is leased across five campuses with approx. 36bn USD in contracted rent over the initial lease terms (approx. 86bn including extensions), including a 15-year lease of 210 MW worth 5.2bn USD with an investment-grade hyperscaler.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year to 31/5; the figures are TTM to 31/8-2026 (Q1 FY27). HPC revenue is dominated by one-off tenant fit-out income, so EV/Sales overstates recurring lease revenue. Owns about 96% of the listed ChronoScale (CHRN). Industry 'Software, cloud & internet' (data center hosting). Loss-making, so T2 is P/S, EV/Sales and P/B versus own history and peers. Tenants in Polaris Forge 2 and Delta Forge are not named (investment-grade hyperscalers).
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