Rankings Software, cloud & internet Viaplay
Viaplay
47
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Debt and refinancing−8
- Capital allocation−7
Strengths
- Divestments and debt reduction+2
- Insider buying+1
- Maintained guidance and turnaround+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 0.76 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 3,635m
- Cash runway
- 20 months
- Cash / debt
- 1,271.0 / 6,469.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +-1%
Bull case
The Netherlands sale and Allente synergies (SEK 300–400m) lift EBITDA to about SEK 2bn (double-digit margin) in 2028; at 7x EBITDA and net debt of about 3.8bn that gives equity of about SEK 10bn = about SEK 2.2 per share (about 2x). A tripling requires a margin above 12% or a bid from Canal+/PPF with a large premium.
Bear case
Rising sports rights prices or the loss of several rights (such as the NHL) put pressure on subscriptions and margin, FCF stays negative, and the 2028 maturity of SEK 6.9bn requires a new recapitalisation – in 2024 that gave about 98% dilution.
Catalysts
- 22 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: EBITDA vs guidance of 1.0–1.4bn SEK, FCF and subscriptionsgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Completion of the sale of Holland (142 m EUR) – net debt falls about 30%gradual viaplaygroup.com
- Jun 2028Maturity of 6.9 bn SEK in loans and MTNbinary investing.com
- no datePossible joint bid from Canal+ and PPF (reported by Bloomberg in March 2026)binary placera.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – gearing 4.5x and negative tangible equity, but two large strategic owners with 58.6% have previously rescued the company (though with massive dilution) and have an interest in keeping it.
Next financingQuarterly burn = cash interest (SEK 382m per year); FCF was +113m in Q2. 'Runway' = time to the next major maturity: SEK 420m in 2026 and 2027 is manageable, but SEK 6.9bn matures in June 2028 (about 20 months). The sale of Holland (about SEK 1.57bn) should help; otherwise 2028 requires refinancing, support from Canal+/PPF or new equity.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found. The share count fell 0.95% in a year (minor buybacks), but rose c. 58 times in the 2024 recapitalisation (SEK 4bn of new equity, mainly from Canal+ and PPF). MTN bonds maturing 2028.
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurchases: CEO Christian Albeck about SEK 0.3m (26/8-2026), Philip Wågnert, Finnish country managers (26/8), Kenneth Andresen 115,000 B shares (7/9), Jonas Karlén 141,916 B shares for about SEK 0.2m (10/9). No sales found.
Largest ownersCanal+ about 29.3% and PPF Group about 29.3%; institutions in total 46.5%, insiders 0.9%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – DKK 3.6bn. (2) Hot theme: no – streaming is mature. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Q3, Netherlands sale and a possible bid. (4) Major partner: yes – Canal+ and PPF each own 29.3%. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – no large maturity before June 2028 (approx. 20 months). (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −99% since 2021, but only −12% in a year and above the 2024–2025 level.
Why this asymmetryA bid from the two major owners provides a real shortcut to upside, and operations have turned to positive EBITDA. But the stock is not cheap on EV/EBITDA, FCF is still weak, and the major owners can press for a low buyout price. High liquidity.
How the score is built
From 100 to 47, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.20 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +21%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −8MarginGross margin 15% and operating margin 2.1% TTM; net loss −SEK 1.44bn TTM and −350m in H1 2026. EBITDA guidance of SEK 1.0–1.4bn on about 21bn in revenue equals only 5–7%.
- −4Quality of growthCore sales grew 28% in Q2, but organically only 1% - the rest is the Allente acquisition. B2B subscriptions are falling, and Mediavision reports that streaming growth in Sweden has stalled.
- −7Capital allocationInternational expansion and expensive sports rights in 2021–2022 ended in a loss of SEK 9.7bn in 2023 and a recapitalization with SEK 4bn of new equity and approx. 58 times more shares; then debt-financed purchase of Allente (SEK 1.7bn new loan, goodwill +1.8bn).
- −4MoatCompetes against Netflix, HBO Max and Disney+ with borrowed sports rights that must be renegotiated continuously; pricing power is limited when the gross margin is only 15%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 14.9 TTM (about 9x on the midpoint of 2026 guidance); P/S 0.27 vs 0.17-0.23 in 2024-2025 and P/B 2.6 on negative tangible equity (SEK -3.5bn). The stock is more expensive than in the last two years on a still slim result.
- −7FCF yieldNegative free cash flow four years in a row (−3.2, −3.5, −2.0, −2.3 bn SEK); FCF yield −44% TTM. Q2 2026 was +113m vs +823m a year earlier.
- −2PeersAbout 9x forward EV/EBITDA is not cheap against European TV and streaming companies, which typically trade at 5–8x with positive FCF.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −8Debt and refinancingNet debt SEK 5.38bn = 4.5x EBITDA and interest cover 0.65; 420m matures in 2026 and 2027, but SEK 6.9bn matures in total in June 2028.
- −3Controlling ownersCanal+ and PPF own about 29.3% each and considered a joint bid in March 2026; with 58.6% combined they can push through a squeeze-out price, and minority shareholders have little bargaining power.
- −2IntegrationThe Allente integration costs SEK 270–330m, and the synergies of 300–400m only come in full in 2027.
- −2Sports rightsOn 16/9-2026 Disney took over parts of the NHL rights from Viaplay; loss of sports content is the biggest risk to the subscriber base.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Divestments and debt reductionThe sale of the Dutch operations for EUR 142m (about SEK 1.57bn) is expected to complete within a few months and reduces net debt by about 30%.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Christian Albeck (approx. SEK 0.3m, 26/8), tech chief Philip Wågnert, country managers in Finland, Sweden (Jonas Karlén, 10/9) and Norway (Kenneth Andresen, 7/9) have bought shares – small amounts, but broad.
- +1Maintained guidance and turnaroundNet result +SEK 70m in Q2 vs −49m, core EBITDA 458m; EBITDA guidance of 1.0–1.4bn and target of a double-digit EBITDA margin in 2028 maintained.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3), turnaround after the 2024 recapitalisation (share count 78 → 4,578m). TTM revenue (+10%) is lifted by the purchase of the rest of Allente; organic growth was only 1% in Q2 2026. Stockanalysis' TTM FCF (−SEK 2.3bn) is dominated by 2025 and working capital; Q2 2026 was +113m. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Details on the NHL rights (Disney 16/9-2026) and the more precise status of the Canal+/PPF bid considerations from March 2026 have not been verified in primary sources. No clear cause found for the price fall in September (RSI 25). Media/streaming does not fit the list; 'Software, cloud & internet' chosen.
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