Rankings Construction & materials Axalta
Axalta
71
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Merger and competition risk−5
- Quality of growth−4
- Margin−2
Strengths
- Customer acquisition+2
- Debt reduction and FCF+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 71, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 35.84 USD
- Median analyst target
- 37.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +3.2%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 33.00 – 47.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +26%
- P/E (trailing)
- 23.0
- Forward P/E
- 13.7
- PEG
- 1.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from USD 5.28bn in 2024 to USD 5.12bn in 2025 and USD 5.15bn TTM (−1%); analysts expect only +2–3% a year in 2026–2027. Q2 grew 3%, driven by Refinish (+6%), while the rest stands still.
- −2MarginOperating margin 14.7% and net margin only 6.8% (TTM); adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7% in Q2 is good, but interest and merger costs eat a large share, and operating margin has not risen since 2024.
- −2Return on capitalROIC 10.3% (TTM) vs 12.8% in 2024 and only slightly above a WACC of 9.0%; ROE has fallen from 21% to 14%.
- −2Capital allocationMerger of 'equals' with AkzoNobel, where AkzoNobel's CEO becomes head of the combined company and Axalta shareholders become a minority; buybacks are paused to reduce debt.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 12.3 vs 12.2-18.1 in 2021-2025 (bottom of the range), EV/EBITDA 9.7 vs 9.7-13.1 and P/FCF 14.5 vs 15-39. Cheap vs own history and peers like PPG and Sherwin-Williams, but the price is tied to AkzoNobel via the exchange ratio.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −5Merger and competition riskThe European Commission received the notification on 17 Sep with a Phase 1 deadline of 22 Oct; automotive refinish is the remaining competition issue, and the parties have found a divestment to resolve it. Approvals in the UK and US are still missing, and a divestment in Refinish hits Axalta's strongest business.
- −2DebtNet debt USD 2.4bn (2.5x EBITDA) and interest cover 4.3; debt has been reduced from 4.5x in 2022, but the merger combines two companies with significant debt.
- −2Tariffs and geopoliticsManagement kept guidance but pointed to tariffs, geopolitical tensions and the Iran situation as risks; Q3 EBITDA guidance of USD 295–305m is below Q2's USD 305m.
- −2One-off itemsMerger costs of 31m USD in Q2 alone; net income fell to 89m USD, and GAAP EPS TTM is down 20%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Customer acquisitionAbout 2,700 new body shops net year to date through July, of which about 800 North American MSO locations; Refinish +6% with better price/mix.
- +1Debt reduction and FCFNet debt/EBITDA down from 4.5 in 2022 to 2.5; FCF of USD 495m (TTM, FCF yield 6.9%) amply covers buybacks of USD 100m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q3 2026 is reported on 29 Oct; TTM figures run to 30 Jun 2026. The stock is effectively an option on AkzoNobel: each Axalta share is exchanged for 0.6539 AkzoNobel shares at completion (expected late 2026/early 2027), so the price follows the AkzoNobel stock. Industry: coatings and paint = 'Construction & materials' (closest; no chemicals category). GAAP EPS is depressed by merger costs, so forward P/E (adjusted) is used. Insider trading and customer concentration among the carmakers have not been investigated. 13F purchases give no points.
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