Rankings Financial data & insurance broking ASR Nederland
ASR Nederland
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Acquisition-driven growth−3
- Business mix−2
Strengths
- Dividend and buybacks+2
- Capital and capital generation+2
- Organic growth+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 75.92 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 77.50 EUR
- Upside to median
- +2.1%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 52.50 – 90.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +31%
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.2
- Forward P/E
- 11.7
- PEG
- 3.91
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−5 of −30
- −3Acquisition-driven growthRevenue has grown via acquisitions (Aegon Nederland in 2023, partly paid for with shares, so the share count rose about 46% in 2023 and 16% in 2024, and now Bovemij); analysts expect only about +1% EPS in both 2026 and 2027.
- −2Business mixHealth insurance runs at a combined ratio of 99.6% (almost no profit), and a large, mature life and pension book from the Aegon acquisition ties up capital at low returns.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.40 vs 0.73–1.22 in 2021–2025 and forward P/E 11.3 vs 7.5–10.8 (both record highs); dividend yield of 4.7% is below 5.9–8.1% in the same period. The share price is +28% in a year.
- −1PeersForward P/E 11.3 and P/B 1.40 vs NN Group (9.8 and 0.98) with the same Dutch life and pension profile; the premium over NN is larger than the difference in growth (both expect low EPS growth).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−6 of −35
- −2Share overhang from AegonAegon still owns about 24% after selling 12.5m shares at EUR 56 in Sep 2025; the 180-day lock-up has expired, and Aegon wants to reduce its capital at holding level, so new placings could weigh on the price.
- −1DisabilityManagement reports uncertainty in the disability business owing to elevated incidence (combined ratio 93.3%).
- −1Earnings qualityThe non-life combined ratio (89.9%) is lifted by favourable run-off from prior years and is below the target range of 92–94%; the level is not sustainable.
- −1Pension buy-outsCompetition for pension buy-outs is fierce, and management admits the opportunities may be pushed beyond 2027; a key growth engine is therefore uncertain.
- −1
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Dividend and buybacksDividend EUR 693m + buyback EUR 292m (TTM) = EUR 985m, below net income of EUR 1,142m; interim dividend raised 9.4% to EUR 1.39 and buyback of EUR 175m completed.
- +2Capital and capital generationRecord OCC of 773m (+7%) in H1, on track for the target of 1.35bn in 2026; Solvency II 222%, operating result +10% and operating ROE above 15% vs the target of above 12%.
- +1Organic growthNon-life premiums grew 6% (above the target of 3–5%), fee income 33% and annuity inflows 38%; the Aegon integration is complete.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Insurance: payouts are measured against net profit; stockanalysis' FCF swings wildly (−0.6bn in 2025, +1.3bn TTM) and is not meaningful. Stockanalysis' revenue forecast (−29% in 2026) is an IFRS 17 artefact. The trailing P/E of 14.7 is on reported EPS of 4.98; the forward P/E of 11.3 is on adjusted EPS (6.43). 2025 net profit (548m) was depressed by losses on investment sales, so IFRS ROE (12.2%) is lower than ASR's operating ROE (above 15%). Share count −0.23% in a year, but −8.9% in the quarter according to stockanalysis, which does not match buybacks of 175m; not used for points. Interest-rate risk in the life book and the pension transition (Wtp) have not been examined separately. Next report 17 Feb 2027.
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