Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Axon
Axon
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−7
- FCF yield−6
- Multiples vs own history−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Order book+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 425.43 USD
- Median analyst target
- 688.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +61.7%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 440.00 – 830.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −42%
- P/E (trailing)
- 176.9
- Forward P/E
- 47.7
- PEG
- 1.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−15 of −30
- −7MarginGAAP operating margin is only 1.7% (TTM) and was -1.1% in 2025 vs 10.1% in 2023; stock-based compensation of 633m USD (about 20% of revenue) eats the entire difference to the adjusted EBITDA margin of about 25%. ROIC has fallen to 1.2% from 15.5% in 2023.
- −3DilutionThe share count rose 2.4% over the past year, and the company has diluted every year since 2021 (4-10% a year) despite buybacks of USD 298m TTM.
- −3Capital allocationAcquisitions of USD 1.2bn TTM (including the Dedrone area) have turned a net cash position of USD 602m in 2023 into net debt of USD 1.16bn; FCF was only USD 75m in 2025 and USD 133m TTM.
- −1Quality of growthGrowth is strong (35% in Q2, ARR +39%), but 57% of revenue is still hardware (TASER and sensors), which is exposed to component prices; the gross margin has slipped from 62.7% in 2021 to 59.5%.
- −1MoatFormer partner Flock Safety has become a competitor in cameras and real-time software for police, challenging Axon's platform moat.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−11 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 43.5 vs 67.6-104.9 in 2021-2025 and EV/revenue 10.5 vs 9.7-21.6: historically cheap after -39% in a year, but still a high absolute multiple for a company with almost zero GAAP profit (trailing P/E 162).
- −6FCF yieldP/FCF 244 and FCF yield 0.4%; even analysts' 2026 FCF estimate of USD 425m gives only about 1.3% of the market cap of $31.7bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−8 of −35
- −3Component costs and one-offsQ2 gross margin was lifted by a tariff refund that will not recur, and the CFO expects rising memory costs in H2, so the Q3 margin falls before being lifted in Q4. The stock fell 14% on the results.
- −2LawsuitsA lawsuit challenges the legality of the planned USD 1.3bn headquarters project in Scottsdale, Arizona; the stock fell 10% in connection with the new legal risks and price target cuts.
- −2Debt and interest coverageGross debt USD 1.85bn (mainly convertible bonds) and interest coverage of only 0.49 on GAAP EBIT; debt/EBITDA 9.8.
- −1Insider sellingInsiders sold 26,634 shares for about 15m USD over 90 days (March 2026) and there were no insider purchases.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceGrowth guidance for 2026 raised by 200bp to 32-34% after Q2; revenue of USD 904m beat consensus of 876m.
- +2Order bookFuture contracted bookings rose over 40% to 15.1bn USD (about 4.7 years of revenue), and net revenue retention rose to 126% from 119%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Industry: Axon (TASER, bodycams, Dedrone drone defence and police software) is normally classified as Aerospace & Defense; the closest category is Defence, aerospace, even though 43% of revenue is software and services. Adjusted EBITDA margin (about 25%) excludes stock-based compensation of about 20% of revenue; GAAP figures are used. Q3 2026 is reported on 3 Nov. The reason for the share price fall from about 571 USD in August to 417 USD has not been found in a primary source; the lawsuit over the headquarters has only been seen in secondary sources without a reliable date. Peer multiples (Motorola Solutions) have not been retrieved.
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