Rankings Construction & materials Avantium
Avantium
38
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding need and dilution−10
- Capital allocation−8
Strengths
- State backing+2
- Commercial validation+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 38, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 19 Oct 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.57 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 9.20 EUR
- Upside to median
- +101.3%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 4.50 – 95.70 EUR
- 52-week change
- −32%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −10MarginThe gross margin is −245% and the operating result −EUR 46.8m TTM on revenue of 14.1m. There have been losses every year (operating result −23.9 to −40.2m EUR in 2021–2025), and EBITDA was −18.8m in H1 2026.
- −8Capital allocationDebt has risen from EUR 10.7m (2021) to 160m and the share count from 3.1m to 25.2m (adjusted for the 2025 reverse split). The flagship factory in Delfzijl has had large budget overruns and delays, and a further approx. EUR 7m in capex is coming to fix titanium parts.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from EUR 21.0m (2024) to 14.6 (2025) and 4.7m in H1 2026 (6.7 the year before). The Ray technology has been sold to UPM, Volta has been spun out, and the investment in Dawn has stopped, so the company is shrinking to one core project.
- −3Moat / segment of the futureFDCA/PEF is a patented, bio-based replacement for PET, and Avantium is first with an industrial-scale plant (5 kt). But the technology is not commercially proven, full capacity is not expected until H2 2028, and PEF must compete on price with cheap fossil PET.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 18.1 vs 5.9-12.3 in 2021-2024, and EV has risen to EUR 255m because debt has grown, even though market cap has fallen. P/B is 1.0 on equity that mainly consists of a plant that does not yet produce.
- −5PeersOrigin Materials (bio-based plastics platform, scale-up problems) has a market value of USD 5m and negative EV. Avantium's EV of approx. EUR 255m for a 5 kt plant without production presupposes a successful start-up and licensing.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−26 of −35
- −10Funding need and dilutionCash was EUR 23.9m (incl. restricted funds) at 30/6-2026 vs net cash burn of 33.6m in H1, i.e. about 4 months of runway. The company wants to raise at least EUR 55m (about 43% of market cap) in H2 2026, and it is the third large issue in a few years. The NOM loan of 20m is conditional on the issue.
- −7DebtDebt is EUR 160m, of which 108m short-term, and current ratio is 0.24. The bank facility (ABN AMRO, ASN, ING, Rabobank and Invest-NL) was extended in 2025 to 30/6-2028 on condition of a successful capital increase. The banks hold security, and the lenders rank ahead of shareholders.
- −6Start-up and execution riskThe plant was originally planned to produce in 2024/2025. First FDCA deliveries are now expected at the end of 2026, conditional on start-up of the purification unit and product qualification, and full capacity only in H2 2028.
- −3Market/sector riskBio-based plastics have a tough track record: Origin Materials has collapsed to a market cap of USD 5m, and several other projects have been abandoned. The offtake agreements are conditional on product qualification, and PEF must be sold at a premium to PET.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2State backingThe Dutch state invested EUR 15m in the EUR 84.8m issue in 2025, Invest-NL is a lender, and NOM (state and the province of Groningen) is negotiating a convertible loan of EUR 20m.
- +2Commercial validation22 long-term offtake agreements for the flagship plant's production and 15 capacity reservations of over 150 kt FDCA/PEF from future licensed plants, corresponding to a possible annual product value of approx. EUR 750m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Avantium is NOT in a formal restructuring (no suspension of payments or WHOA), but in 2025 the bank financing was extended to 30/6-2028 conditional on a capital increase, and now a further issue of at least EUR 55m is required. The ordinary calibration is used, but the financing risk is counted heavily in T3. The share count (25.16m) is adjusted for the share consolidation in May 2025. The market cap is EUR 127m (about DKK 948m) and matches Nordnet. The result of the extraordinary general meeting 30/9-2026 and the price of the issue are not known yet. The industry is set to Construction & materials as the nearest choice (chemicals/bioplastics are not on the list). The analysts' price target of EUR 27 at stockanalysis looks outdated and is not used. Largest shareholders, the terms of the existing warrant agreements and short interest (AFM register) are not verified.
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