Rankings Construction & materials Episurf
Episurf
38
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Capital allocation−10
- Governance and conflicts of interest−8
- Debt and financing−8
Strengths
- Bank financing+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 0.05 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 535m
- Cash runway
- 58 months
- Cash / debt
- 362.8 / 625.5m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +340%
Bull case
The portfolio reaches 5.9–10bn SEK with 496m in rental income and 372m in pro forma net operating income. If the financing can be refinanced more cheaply and the stock trades up to 0.9–1.0x NAV, the price could rise 30–50%; more than 2x requires NAV per share to grow despite the share issues.
Bear case
Leverage and expensive loans in a selective credit market, more in-kind issues below NAV and conflicts of interest (SBB-like structure) press NAV per share. With a fall in property values of 10% and 42% loan-to-value, equity falls about 17%, and the stock could trade at 0.4–0.5x NAV.
Catalysts
- H2 2026 (no date)Sale of Episealer patents and intellectual property rights after the wind-down of medtechgradual mb.cision.com
- 2026-11-01 (planned)Acquisition of five property companies (approx. SEK 505m, binding agreement by 30/9)gradual mb.cision.com
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 report: first quarter with KlaraBo, Livi, Lilium and Setune; NAV per share after dilutiongradual stockanalysis.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – there are real properties with rental income and bank financing, but leverage, a fast acquisition pace, ongoing dilution and governance risks make an SBB-like downturn possible
Next financingThe formula gives 58 months (cash 362.8 m / Q2 burn 18.7 m), but this is not representative: cash at 30/6 was largely earmarked for the takeover of KlaraBo and Livi in July. A property company does not burn cash on operations, but the planned acquisitions for 3.8 bn SEK require new bank debt, convertibles and in-kind issues on an ongoing basis in Q4 2026.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertibles and subscription warrants to Frusipe Intressenter Holding (issued April and July 2026; number and prices not reviewed). Convertible loan of SEK 66.5m (24 months, STIBOR + 1.75%). In June 2026 SEK 37.5m was converted into 834m B shares (about SEK 0.045 per share). The Frusipe deal can in total give up to 1,208% dilution.
Insiders, last 12 monthsIlija Batljan (IB Invest) transferred bonds worth SEK 246m before the Frusipe deal was announced in January 2026. Specific purchases/sales of Episurf shares in the register have not been reviewed.
Largest ownersIlija Batljan via IB Invest and Health Runner over 22% (January 2026, before the non-cash issues); Frusipe Intressenter Holding (Thomas Åhman, Jonas Andersson, Calle and Jon Larsgården, Fredrik Söderberg, CEO Jens Andersson); KlaraBo and Grännäs Fastigheter via non-cash shares. Current stakes not quantified.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no, approx. DKK 535m and rising with the issues. (2) Hot theme: no, Swedish real estate. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, acquisitions, but no binary catalyst. (4) Major partner: no, only a bank and Newsec as manager. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, the acquisitions require ongoing new capital. (6) Price near the bottom: no, +100–129% in a year.
Why this asymmetryThe stock is no longer a medtech lottery ticket, but a leveraged real estate company built with contribution-in-kind issues, where the upside is limited to a smaller NAV discount, and the downside includes leverage, dilution and conflicts of interest. No realistic path to 3–10x.
How the score is built
From 100 to 38, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.06 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +65%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −7Margin and returnsThe properties give an operating result of SEK 13.1m in H1 2026 (profit margin 72%), but the period's result was −SEK 234m after a goodwill write-down of 162.4m and a revaluation of −20.1m, and operating cash flow before working capital was −44.4m.
- −6Quality of growthRental income rose 413% in Q2 to SEK 12.3m, but the growth is purely bought: property investments of 969m in H1 and agreements on a further SEK 3.8bn, paid with new shares at SEK 0.045-0.10, convertibles and loans. There is no organic history.
- −10Capital allocationThe share count has risen 340% over a year to 10.7bn, and the Frusipe deal alone could give 354–1,208% dilution. Shortly after the purchases, SEK 162m in goodwill was written down, i.e. more than net asset value was paid, and the medtech part is being wound down after many years of losses without sales.
- −4Structure and moatA quickly acquired, mixed portfolio (LSS housing, residential, logistics, commercial) in smaller Swedish towns and Finland, managed by Newsec. The CEO himself writes that in the build-up phase the company gets worse loan terms than established property companies.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyThe history is not comparable after the conversion. P/B is 1.32 versus 1.06–1.30 in 2024–2025 (at the top), and EV/Sales of 40 is meaningless because most properties were only taken over after 30/6.
- −3Peers and substanceThe price of SEK 0.074 is about 0.74x NAV per share (SEK 0.10 at 30/6). Smaller Swedish property companies with higher debt typically trade at 0.5-0.8x NAV, so the discount is normal and not a mispricing, especially as NAV rests on contribution-in-kind values.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−25 of −35
- −8Governance and conflicts of interestIlija Batljan (SBB's founder) owns over 22% of Episurf via IB Invest and Health Runner and at the same time held a convertible in the seller Frusipe that could give 48%. He is described as being on all sides of the deal, and the structure is criticised for circumventing bond terms.
- −8Debt and financingInterest-bearing debt was SEK 625.5m as of 30/6 (from 4.9m at the turn of the year) and grows with acquisitions to a pro forma portfolio of SEK 5.9bn. The loan-to-value ratio is 42%, but financing consists of bank loans, convertibles (incl. 66.5m at STIBOR + 1.75%) and reverses, and new acquisitions require ongoing new financing.
- −6Continued dilutionEach deal is partly paid with new B shares: 2.89bn shares at SEK 0.045 to KlaraBo (July), 869m at SEK 0.10 to Grännäs (July), 834m on conversion (June), plus new convertibles and warrants to Frusipe. The company itself writes that dilution from earlier agreements continues.
- −3ExecutionAgreements worth SEK 3.8bn are to be taken over in the autumn, and the vision is SEK 10bn in property value in 2026. A portfolio in the Frusipe deal had not even been taken over by the seller, and a property worth 233m is legally taken over only within 18 months.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Bank financingThe two largest acquisitions are financed by a Nordic bank, and the portfolio has a forward direct yield of 6.6% and a pro forma occupancy rate of about 94%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Episurf Medical was converted in 2026 from medtech to a real estate company (reverse takeover via the Frusipe agreement); the medtech part is being wound down from August 2026. Real estate does not fit the industry list; 'Construction & materials' was chosen as the closest (as for SBB). Historical multiples are therefore not comparable. Market cap: 10,688m shares (after the issue on 8/7-2026) × SEK 0.074 = SEK 791m ≈ DKK 535m; Nordnet's DKK 706m corresponds to about 14bn shares and is either wrong or includes later non-cash issues (Lilium/Setune, Finland, Hudiksvall), which have not been checked. No analysts (forecast 404). Pro forma figures (SEK 5.9bn in properties, 496m in rental income) are the company's own and unaudited; interest costs and loan terms per loan have not been reviewed.
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