Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Banco BPM

Banco BPM

Financial data & insurance broking · ItalyRank 269 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history−9
Takeover game and minority shareholders−5
Quality of growth−3

Strengths

Raised guidance+1
Capital+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 71, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

71Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 13.32 EUR
Median analyst target: 15.60 EUR
Upside to median: +17.1%
Analysts: 13
Target range: 13.30 – 18.10 EUR
52-week change: +6%
P/E (trailing): 10.4
Forward P/E: 10.0
PEG: 2.34

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−5 of −30

Quality of growth
Net interest income fell 4.1% in H1 2026 (−1.9% excluding one-offs); revenue has fallen from EUR 5.45bn (2024) to 5.33bn TTM, and net income from 2.08bn (2025) to 1.93bn TTM (EPS 1.38 → 1.28). Fee growth (+13.8%) was bought via the Anima acquisition.
gruppo.bancobpm.it
−3
Profitability
ROE 12.6% TTM and cost/income 43% vs Intesa (ROE 14.3%, cost/income about 36%) and UniCredit (ROE 15.8%, cost/income 34%); the weakest of the large Italian banks on return and efficiency.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/B 1.57 vs 0.31–1.26 in 2021–2025 (record) and trailing P/E 12.9 vs 5.7–9.4 (record); dividend yield 6.2% vs 8.0–15.6%. The share price has risen from 2.36 to 16.39 EUR since 2022 (about 7x), while EPS has risen from 0.45 to 1.28 (2.8x), and EPS is now falling.
stockanalysis.com
−9
Peers
P/TBV 1.98 and forward P/E 11.9 at ROE 12.6% vs Intesa (1.98/10.8, ROE 14.3%) and UniCredit (1.87/10.7, ROE 15.8%); the same or a higher price for a lower return. The premium is a takeover premium, and the share price is above the analysts' average price target.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−6 of −35

Takeover game and minority shareholders
MPS is offering 1.567 of its own shares (EUR 16.73, no premium) for EUR 25.3bn; the board unanimously rejected it, and Crédit Agricole (29.3%) says 'nothing can be done without us' and prefers a merger with Crédit Agricole Italia. Without a bid with a premium the speculative price may fall; with a CA solution the minority risks terms set by the major shareholder.
money.it
−5
Governance
Insiders own 0.00% of the shares, and a single foreign major shareholder (Crédit Agricole, 29.3%) effectively has a veto over the bank's strategy.
stockanalysis.com
−1

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15

Raised guidance
2026 outlook raised to over EUR 1.95bn and DPS of at least EUR 1.00; EPS and dividend targets raised 2%/4%/5% for 2026–2028, and the 2024–2027 distribution target increased from about 6 to about EUR 7bn.
orafinanza.it
+1
Capital
CET1 14.40% as of 30 June vs 13.58% at year-end (+82 bp); cost/income 43% is the bank's best level ever.
gruppo.bancobpm.it
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Bank: EV, ROIC and FCF are not meaningful; valuation on P/B, P/TBV and P/E, and the payout is held against net profit. The share price (EUR 16.39) is affected by the takeover game: MPS' exchange offer (1.567 MPS shares, EUR 16.73, no premium) and Crédit Agricole's 29.3%, and it is above analysts' average price target (15.88). The payout TTM (dividend 1.53 + buyback 0.54 = EUR 2.07bn) was above net profit (1.93bn), so no plus has been given for payout. The H1 result is adjusted (EUR 1.08bn); reported from continuing operations 1.1bn. The Anima acquisition did not receive Danish Compromise capital treatment; the capital effect has not been investigated in depth. Bank tax and government bonds have not been investigated. Q3 results 5 Nov.