Rankings Defence, aerospace & space BWX Technologies
BWX Technologies
63
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−17
- Margin−6
- Customer concentration−4
Strengths
- Estimates+2
- Order book+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 63, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 130.47 USD
- Median analyst target
- 201.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +54.1%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 150.00 – 290.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −39%
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.1
- Forward P/E
- 26.2
- PEG
- 2.04
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−9 of −30
- −6MarginThe operating margin has fallen from 18.9% (2021) and 14.0% (2022) to 10.2% TTM, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.3% in Q2. The drop is mainly the mix shift towards Commercial Operations (Q2 margin 11.9%, guided about 13%) and Kinectrics, while Government Operations is stable at around 21%.
- −3ROICROIC 10.8% TTM vs 18.8% (2021) and 11.8–12.9% in 2022–24. The pressure comes from the debt-funded Kinectrics acquisition ($535m in 2025), the PCG acquisition (July 2026) and capex of about 6% of revenue.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−17 of −35
- −17Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 26.9 vs 15.1–43.6 in FY21–25 (median 25.0); trailing P/E 34.8; EV/EBITDA 28.8 vs 11.9–38.5 (median 21.3), or about 20.6 on the company's adjusted EBITDA; P/FCF 38.9 (about 35 on guided FCF of $345–360m) and FCF yield 2.6%. Expensive on cash flow and above Northrop (17) and RTX (25.5). (PEG was wrongly included in the old Price reasoning.)
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−11 of −35
- −4Customer concentrationThe US government accounts for 68% of revenue (naval reactors, specialty materials and NNSA contracts). On the other hand BWXT is the sole supplier of naval reactors.
- −2Execution in Government OperationsGovernment Operations grew only 2% in Q2, operating profit fell 3% and adjusted EBITDA 5%, while full-year guidance is high single-digit growth; H2 therefore has to accelerate. (The old claim that growth guidance was cut could not be confirmed.)
- −2Insider tradingCEO Rex Geveden sold 10,000 shares in May ($2.0m at $205) and 10,000 in August ($1.7m at $172.50); the CFO sold $0.5m. No purchases in 2026.
- −1DebtNet debt $1.41bn after borrowing $2.28bn in 2025 (net +$856m). That is about 2.1x the company's adjusted EBITDA, but 3.0x on stockanalysis' EBITDA; interest cover 10.4x. The old statement of 3–4x was exaggerated.
- −2Macro and sentimentThe stock is −26% over 52 weeks and about −22% since mid-August on a re-rating of nuclear stocks; Wells Fargo cut its target from $200 to 170. The defence budget runs on a CR to 11/12.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2EstimatesGuidance raised on all lines in Q2: revenue about $3.8bn, adjusted EBITDA $662–672m (from 650–665), non-GAAP EPS $4.70–4.80 (from 4.60–4.75) and FCF $345–360m (from 315–330).
- +2Order bookThe backlog has grown to $8.4bn from 6.0bn (+40%), about 2.2 years of revenue, driven by multi-year contracts for naval reactors, specialty materials and commercial nuclear.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The margin is falling because the mix is shifting towards commercial nuclear power (margin about 12–13% vs about 21% in Government Operations). The government accounts for 68% of revenue. stockanalysis' EBITDA excludes income from JVs, so EV/EBITDA and debt/EBITDA look worse than on the company's adjusted EBITDA (guided to $662–672m). The sale of the medical business (up to $800m) has not closed. The share is −26% over 52 weeks.
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