Rankings Software, cloud & internet Coffee Stain

Coffee Stain

Software, cloud & internet · SwedenRank 371 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

  • Multiples vs history and peers−7
  • Hit and IP concentration−6
  • Quality of growth−5

Strengths

  • Net cash+3
  • Insider buying+2

How the score is built

From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start
64Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price
19.25 SEK
Median analyst target
26.00 SEK
Upside to median
+35.1%
Analysts
6
Target range
18.50 – 32.00 SEK
52-week change
–
P/E (trailing)
70.4
Forward P/E
15.0
PEG
2.50

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings
−16 of −30
  • Margin
    Reported EBIT margin only 6% in Q1 and 10% TTM due to amortization, but cash EBIT margin 38% in Q1 (SEK 95m). Gross margin is about 98%; the problem is amortization and write-downs, not pricing.
    −4
  • ROIC
    ROIC of 3.5% TTM and 4.6% in FY25/26 (22.6% the year before) due to goodwill and intangible assets of about SEK 2.8bn from the Embracer era.
    −4
  • Quality of growth
    Revenue fell 12% in FY25/26 and was flat TTM (SEK 1,030m); Q1 rose 37% driven by Satisfactory. Hit-driven revenue with large swings from quarter to quarter.
    −5
  • Capital allocation
    Capitalised development of 156-226m SEK per year and write-downs of 40m TTM (81m the year before). Management is now cutting ongoing investments 'significantly' because several projects have not lived up to plan.
    −3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding
−7 of −35
  • Multiples vs history and peers
    EV about SEK 3,673m ≈ 13x real FCF (about 277m after capitalised development and leasing), forward P/E 14.6, but EV/EBIT 33 on reported figures. Short history as a listed company (from 2025). Reasonable, but not cheap for a hit-driven company with flat revenue.
    −7

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings
−13 of −35
  • Hit and IP concentration
    A few games (especially Satisfactory and Valheim) account for most of the earnings, and 86% of revenue comes from the USA (primarily Steam). A weak year for 1–2 titles feeds straight through.
    −6
  • Weak new titles
    Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core (Fellowship Season 3) performed worse than planned, and Q1 revenue (SEK 253m) and cash EBIT (95m) were below consensus (261m and 103m). Management intends to cut back where 'traction no longer supports the case'.
    −4
  • Platform dependence
    Distribution is heavily dependent on Steam (Valve), whose terms and algorithms the company does not control; console releases (PS5/Switch 2) are only just arriving.
    −2
  • Issuance mandate
    The general meeting on 24 Sep 2026 gave the board a mandate to issue B shares, convertibles and/or warrants equal to up to 10% of the shares.
    −1

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings
+5 of +15
  • Net cash
    Net cash of SEK 705m at 30 Jun 2026 (about 16% of market cap) and almost no debt; quarterly dividend of SEK 0.17 (0.68 a year ≈ 152m) is below actual FCF.
    +3
  • Insider buying
    Board member Lars Wingefors bought approx. 1.75m shares at approx. 17.89 SEK (approx. 31m SEK) in late August 2026.
    +2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (price DKK 12.90, above DKK 3). Swedish game developer and publisher, spun out of Embracer in 2025 (Satisfactory, Valheim via Iron Gate, Goat Simulator, Deep Rock Galactic). A price of SEK 19.54 and 223.2m shares (A+B) give a market cap of about SEK 4,361m (DKK 2,880m), in line with Nordnet. The fiscal year runs from April to March; Q1 FY26/27 = April-June 2026. Stockanalysis' FCF (454m TTM) is before capitalized development (156m) and leasing (21m); the company's actual FCF is about SEK 277m. Reported earnings are low due to large amortization of intangible assets from the Embracer era (goodwill 2,045m), so P/E 71 is misleading. Valheim 1.0 was released 9/9-2026 on PC, Xbox, PS5 and Switch 2; sales figures have not been published. Industry: 'Software, cloud & internet' is closest for games. Operating company with no burn, so runway is null. Short data not examined.

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