Rankings Software, cloud & internet Coffee Stain
Coffee Stain
64
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs history and peers−7
- Hit and IP concentration−6
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Insider buying+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 19.25 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 26.00 SEK
- Upside to median
- +35.1%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 18.50 – 32.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- 70.4
- Forward P/E
- 15.0
- PEG
- 2.50
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−16 of −30
- −4MarginReported EBIT margin only 6% in Q1 and 10% TTM due to amortization, but cash EBIT margin 38% in Q1 (SEK 95m). Gross margin is about 98%; the problem is amortization and write-downs, not pricing.
- −4ROICROIC of 3.5% TTM and 4.6% in FY25/26 (22.6% the year before) due to goodwill and intangible assets of about SEK 2.8bn from the Embracer era.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue fell 12% in FY25/26 and was flat TTM (SEK 1,030m); Q1 rose 37% driven by Satisfactory. Hit-driven revenue with large swings from quarter to quarter.
- −3Capital allocationCapitalised development of 156-226m SEK per year and write-downs of 40m TTM (81m the year before). Management is now cutting ongoing investments 'significantly' because several projects have not lived up to plan.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs history and peersEV about SEK 3,673m ≈ 13x real FCF (about 277m after capitalised development and leasing), forward P/E 14.6, but EV/EBIT 33 on reported figures. Short history as a listed company (from 2025). Reasonable, but not cheap for a hit-driven company with flat revenue.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−13 of −35
- −6Hit and IP concentrationA few games (especially Satisfactory and Valheim) account for most of the earnings, and 86% of revenue comes from the USA (primarily Steam). A weak year for 1–2 titles feeds straight through.
- −4Weak new titlesDeep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core (Fellowship Season 3) performed worse than planned, and Q1 revenue (SEK 253m) and cash EBIT (95m) were below consensus (261m and 103m). Management intends to cut back where 'traction no longer supports the case'.
- −2Platform dependenceDistribution is heavily dependent on Steam (Valve), whose terms and algorithms the company does not control; console releases (PS5/Switch 2) are only just arriving.
- −1Issuance mandateThe general meeting on 24 Sep 2026 gave the board a mandate to issue B shares, convertibles and/or warrants equal to up to 10% of the shares.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash of SEK 705m at 30 Jun 2026 (about 16% of market cap) and almost no debt; quarterly dividend of SEK 0.17 (0.68 a year ≈ 152m) is below actual FCF.
- +2Insider buyingBoard member Lars Wingefors bought approx. 1.75m shares at approx. 17.89 SEK (approx. 31m SEK) in late August 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (price DKK 12.90, above DKK 3). Swedish game developer and publisher, spun out of Embracer in 2025 (Satisfactory, Valheim via Iron Gate, Goat Simulator, Deep Rock Galactic). A price of SEK 19.54 and 223.2m shares (A+B) give a market cap of about SEK 4,361m (DKK 2,880m), in line with Nordnet. The fiscal year runs from April to March; Q1 FY26/27 = April-June 2026. Stockanalysis' FCF (454m TTM) is before capitalized development (156m) and leasing (21m); the company's actual FCF is about SEK 277m. Reported earnings are low due to large amortization of intangible assets from the Embracer era (goodwill 2,045m), so P/E 71 is misleading. Valheim 1.0 was released 9/9-2026 on PC, Xbox, PS5 and Switch 2; sales figures have not been published. Industry: 'Software, cloud & internet' is closest for games. Operating company with no burn, so runway is null. Short data not examined.
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