Rankings Commodities & uranium Cameco
Cameco
64
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−30
- ROIC−4
- Westinghouse−3
Strengths
- Pricing power and contracts+2
- Order pipeline+2
- Execution+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 73.38 USD
- Median analyst target
- 124.74 USD
- Upside to median
- +70.0%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 83.83 – 172.34 USD
- 52-week change
- −28%
- P/E (trailing)
- 112.8
- Forward P/E
- 44.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −4ROICROIC 5.0% TTM vs a WACC of 9.7%; 3.0% (2023), 4.4% (2024) and 6.4% (2025). Even at the top of the uranium boom Cameco does not earn its cost of capital, partly because the Westinghouse purchase sits in the capital base.
- −2MarginOperating margin 13.6% TTM, down from 16.7% in 2025; gross margin 35%. Modest for a tier-1 producer with rising realised prices.
- −2Quality of earningsThe GAAP result in Q2 was CAD 25m vs an adjusted result of CAD 77m. Amortisation from the Westinghouse purchase-price allocation weighs, and Cameco's share of Westinghouse produced a net loss of CAD 56m in H1.
- −2Quality of growthRevenue is expected flat in 2026 (−0.0%) and has fallen 2.7% TTM; TTM EPS is −34%. The +78% lift in 2027 EPS is an analyst estimate resting on the uranium price and Westinghouse projects.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−30 of −35
- −30Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 153 vs 69–187 (2022–25); P/S 15.5 vs 7.1–15.7 (2021–25); EV/EBITDA 67.6 vs 42–66 (2022–25); P/FCF 97 vs 31–82 (2021–25). Forward P/E 61, and about 47 on the 2027 estimate. The EBITDA figure excludes the Westinghouse share; on adjusted EBITDA (CAD 899m in H1) EV/EBITDA is about 30, still high for a cyclical producer at the top of its own history.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −3WestinghouseThe share of Westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA fell from CAD 352m to 163m in Q2, and Q2 2025 was lifted by a one-off contribution of about USD 170m from the Czech reactor project. The large AP1000 projects in the US and Europe only enter construction around 2028–30.
- −2OperationsSpring floods hit supply roads in northern Saskatchewan, and there were unplanned shutdowns at Key Lake and McArthur River in Q2. Cigar Lake stood still for about two weeks in July because of problems with the acid plant at Orano's McClean Lake mill. Production guidance is maintained, but with less margin for error.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Pricing power and contractsThe realised uranium price keeps rising; the 5-year contract portfolio gives average deliveries of over 28m lbs a year, and management reports increased contracting activity.
- +2Order pipelineThe partnership with the US government on Westinghouse reactors worth at least USD 80bn, a conditional USD 17.5bn DOE loan guarantee (23/6) and 91 identified AP1000 opportunities.
- +1ExecutionProduction guidance of 19.5–21.5m lbs is maintained despite operational disruptions; the ownership stake in Cigar Lake has increased to 57.4%, and a new labour agreement at Key Lake/McArthur River runs to December 2028.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Trailing P/E 153 and P/FCF 97 are at the top of own history. Westinghouse earnings are project-based and weighed down by amortisation from the purchase price allocation; Westinghouse has filed confidentially for an IPO. Accounts are in CAD, multiples in USD. Insider trading has not been verified (SEDI data were not available).
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