Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Costco
Costco
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−17
- Quality of growth−2
- Tariff refund litigation−2
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Pricing power and diversified customer base+2
- Dividend from FCF+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1,041 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1,065 USD
- Upside to median
- +2.3%
- Analysts
- 41
- Target range
- 770.00 – 1,315 USD
- 52-week change
- +14%
- P/E (trailing)
- 50.1
- Forward P/E
- 45.6
- PEG
- 4.16
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 1 finding−2 of −30
- −2Quality of growthQ4 FY2026: comparable growth 9.4%, but only 6.7% excluding gasoline prices and currency. Membership fees grew 7.3%, and the effect of the fee increase from September 2024 is about to expire. Underlying growth is solid, but lower than the headlines. ROIC has risen from 31% to 37%, and operating margin from 3.5% to 3.8%, so the business is getting stronger.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−17 of −35
- −17Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 47.1 (47.5 adjusted for the tariff refund) vs a 10-year average of about 39 according to fullratio, so about 20% above. Forward P/E 42.9 vs 35.3–52.0 in FY2022–26. EV/EBITDA 29.8 vs 22.4–34.2 and P/FCF 46.2. With forward EPS growth of about 10–11% you pay about four times the growth. Retail peers (Ahold, BJ's) trade at a fraction; only Walmart is close. The price assumes flawless execution for many years.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−3 of −35
- −2Tariff refund litigationAfter the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, four class actions were filed in March 2026. They demand that Costco pass the refund (estimated at over $1bn) on to members, and Costco wants them dismissed. Management says the money goes to lower prices; that removes the gain, but not the litigation risk.
- −1Customer behaviourThe renewal rate in the US/Canada has slipped from 93.0% (Q2 FY2025) to 92.1–92.3%, and the global rate is 89.8%. Management explains this by a larger share of online sign-ups, who renew less often. The decline is small, but it is the most important KPI series in the model.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Net cashCash is $21.3bn and debt $10.2bn, i.e. $11.1bn net cash. Even after deducting prepaid membership fees (estimated at about $3bn) there is clear net cash, and interest cover is 79x.
- +2Pricing power and diversified customer base150.4m cardholders and a global renewal rate of 89.8%, even after the 2024 fee increase. Digital sales grew 19.5% in Q4, and membership fees are recurring revenue with no customer concentration.
- +1Dividend from FCFThe dividend of USD 2.5bn in FY2026 is covered by FCF of USD 9.4bn (after capex of USD 6.4bn), and the dividend has been raised 21 years in a row (+12.6%). The share count is stable.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The price is the whole story: P/E 47 for 10–11% EPS growth. Even flawless operations can give a poor return if the multiple approaches the 10-year average (about 39). FY2026 EPS includes a one-off gain of USD 0.15 from refunded IEEPA tariffs; it has been adjusted for, but matters little. Net cash is not precisely adjusted for prepaid membership fees (estimated at about USD 3bn). Insider sales have not been verified against Form 4 and are therefore not scored. The price is 1% above the 200-day average.
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