Rankings Pharma & medtech Context Therapeutics
Context Therapeutics
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−9
- Funding−6
Strengths
- Net cash+4
- Regulatory and licensing strengthening+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.98 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 182m
- Cash runway
- 14 months
- Cash / debt
- 43.0 / 0.2m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +8%
Bull case
CTIM-76 maintains a response rate of about 30% in a larger cohort with dosing every third week, and CT-202 shows early activity; bispecific T-cell engagers in solid tumours are one of the hottest areas, and a licence deal with USD 50–100m upfront would be 2–4 times the market cap. A return to net cash alone (about USD 0.47 per share) gives +55%.
Bear case
The response does not hold in more patients, competitors with CLDN6 agents come first, and the company must raise USD 30–50m in 2027 at a market cap below 30m – a dilution of 100–200%. A reverse split and possible delisting to OTC press the price further. Downside 50–80% per share.
Catalysts
- 4 Nov 2026Q3 report: confirmation of first patient in CT-202 and cashgradual stockanalysis.com
- 25 Jan 2027Nasdaq deadline to reach USD 1 (possible 180-day extension)binary sec.gov
- Q1 2027Start of phase 1b dose expansion with CTIM-76 in platinum-resistant ovarian cancergradual stocktitan.net
- Q2 2027First safety and efficacy data for CTIM-76 given every third weekbinary stocktitan.net
- 2H 2027First phase 1a data for CT-202 (Nectin-4 x CD3) in bladder, bowel and triple-negative breast cancerbinary stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zeromedium – cash exceeds the market cap, but burn is high, and all assets are in phase 1
Next financingCash of USD 43.0m at 30/6-2026; operating spending of 11.4m in Q1 and 7.0m in Q2 (approx. 9 on average) = approx. 14 months of runway. The company guides to Q4 2027. Phase 1b for CTIM-76 (Q1 2027) and CT-202 data (2H 2027) mean that capital almost certainly has to be raised during 2027 – before the most important data – or a partner found.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertible loans. Weighted share count of 95.2m vs 91.9m outstanding suggests pre-funded warrants (strike c. 0) from the private placement in December 2024; other warrants, employee options and any ATM programme have not been reviewed in SEC filings.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found; insiders own c. 1.4% (Form 4 not reviewed in detail).
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 43% and insiders c. 1.4% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 28m. (2) Hot theme: yes – bispecific T-cell engagers against solid tumors. (3) Upcoming data: yes – CTIM-76 in Q2 2027 and CT-202 in 2H 2027. (4) Major partner: no – no partner; the assets are in-licensed from smaller companies. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – runway to Q4 2027. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −69% in a year and below cash.
Why this asymmetryHot theme, negative EV and two data points in 2027 give real upside, and 29% response in heavily pretreated patients is competitive. But the data is from few patients, the field is crowded, and an issue before the decisive data is almost certain.
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.20 USD
- Median analyst target
- 5.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +2375.2%
- Analysts
- 10
- Target range
- 2.00 – 5.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −81%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss of USD 48.7m TTM and 15.0m in Q2 2026 (R&D 12.5m incl. 6.5m to BioAtla, administration 2.4m).
- −9Quality of growthAll programmes are in phase 1: CTIM-76 (CLDN6 x CD3) has data from very few heavily pretreated patients (29% confirmed response, 57% disease control), CT-202 (Nectin-4 x CD3) was only to dose its first patient in Q3 2026, and CT-95 has been stopped.
- −5MoatIn-licensed T-cell engagers in crowded fields: CLDN6 is pursued by Xencor, BioNTech and Daiichi Sankyo among others, and in Nectin-4, Padcev (Pfizer/Astellas) is already standard of care in bladder cancer. No platform advantage is documented.
- −3Capital allocationCash has fallen from USD 101.5m (after the private placement in 2024) to 43.0m in six quarters, spread across three programs, one of which is now stopped. Positive: the BioAtla agreement was amended in May 2026, so all future milestones and royalties for CT-202 are gone.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own history and peersMarket cap USD 27.6m vs net cash of 42.8m (EV -15m); P/B 0.72 vs 0.6-4.6 in recent quarters. The market gives the pipeline negative value because the cash is expected to be spent before the decisive data.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −6FundingThe cash (USD 43.0m) lasts until Q4 2027 according to the company, but operating spending was 7–11m per quarter, and the first CT-202 data only come in 2H 2027. Money will probably have to be raised at a low price before the most important data.
- −3Listing riskNasdaq notice 29/7-2026 – the second in just over a year – with deadline to 25/1-2027 and possible extension of 180 days. At USD 0.30 a reverse split of at least 1:4 is required.
- −4Price risk and the market's verdictThe stock fell 47% on CTIM-76 data on 15/6-2026 and 27% after the Q2 report and the halt of CT-95; overall −69% over 52 weeks and 7.5% of shares sold short.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+6 of +15
- +4Net cashNet cash USD 42.8m with no real debt, corresponding to approx. 155% of the market cap.
- +2Regulatory and licensing strengtheningFDA granted CTIM-76 Fast Track in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (April 2026), and the BioAtla agreement was amended so that CT-202 is free of milestones and royalties.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical-stage biotech in phase 1 with no revenue; the Q2 net loss (USD 14.6m) includes a one-off expense of 6.5m for the BioAtla licence; weighted share count (95.2m) is higher than outstanding (91.9m), suggesting pre-funded warrants from the 2024 private placement - not verified in the 10-Q; ATM program not examined in the S-3; it is not confirmed whether the first patient in CT-202 was dosed as planned in Q3 2026; 10 analysts with a price target of USD 4.03 (last updated August), which seems stale; shareholder list not examined
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
