Rankings Commodities & uranium Yara International
Yara International
59
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−5
- Temporary margins−5
- ROIC through the cycle−4
Strengths
- Debt reduction+1
- Lower energy costs+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 59, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 395.00 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 445.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +12.7%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 350.00 – 580.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- +7%
- P/E (trailing)
- 7.4
- Forward P/E
- 11.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−16 of −30
- −4ROIC through the cycleROIC 13.2% (TTM), but only 0.6% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2023 vs 24.8% in 2022 and 8.2% in 2021. Through the cycle the return barely covers the cost of capital.
- −3MarginNet margin 9.3% (TTM) vs 0.1% in 2024, 0.3% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021. The operating margin swings between 3% and 16% with gas and fertiliser prices.
- −5Quality of growthEBITDA before special items rose 39% to USD 906m in Q2, while external deliveries fell 17% (Africa & Asia −28%) and downtime cost USD 120m. The whole improvement is price margin, not volume.
- −3MoatA strong distribution network and premium products (nitrates, NPK), but European production is more expensive than US and Middle Eastern gas-based ammonia. Yara bought Gulf Coast Ammonia precisely to reduce its dependence on European energy prices.
- −1Capital allocationThe dividend swings wildly: USD 1.32bn paid in 2023 (above FCF of 1.15bn), then only 0.12–0.13bn in 2024–2025. Now an ammonia plant is being bought for USD 1.3bn while ammonia prices are high.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 4.46 is low vs 3.34–9.57 (2021–2025), P/B 1.24 mid-range of 0.96–1.81 and forward P/E 8.1 mid-range of 5.0–11.4. It looks cheap, but is measured on a peak margin: analysts expect EPS −21% in 2027.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35
- −5Temporary marginsThe blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused a supply shock and swings in urea prices, which lift Yara's margins. The price uncertainty also led to a slow start to the season in the northern hemisphere. Analysts expect EPS −21% and revenue −3.6% in 2027.
- −4Gas supplyYara had to cut ammonia and urea production at Babrala (India) when the war interrupted gas supply from the Middle East. European production remains exposed to gas prices of about USD 15–16/mmbtu.
- −3Acquisition risk and debtGulf Coast Ammonia (1.3m t/year in Texas City) costs USD 1.3bn, awaits approval and is only to run steadily by the end of 2026. It comes on top of net debt of USD 3.1bn.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Debt reductionNet debt/EBITDA has fallen from 2.83 in 2023 to 1.03; Piotroski F-score 8.
- +1Lower energy costsWith Gulf Coast Ammonia the share of gas bought at Henry Hub prices rises from 27% to 38%, and management expects a double-digit return.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in USD, price in NOK. No industry fits fertiliser/chemicals precisely; "Commodities & uranium" was chosen as the closest (same as Solvay). The Norwegian state owns about 36% (not assessed as a deduction). Q2 margins are lifted by the urea price shock after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf Coast Ammonia acquisition (USD 1.3bn) awaits regulatory approval. Peers (CF Industries, OCI, Nutrien) have not been compared.
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