Equinor
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Price normalisation−6
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Buybacks+2
- Raised production outlook+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 427.30 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 396.62 NOK
- Upside to median
- −7.2%
- Analysts
- 25
- Target range
- 261.06 – 542.21 NOK
- 52-week change
- +76%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.3
- Forward P/E
- 9.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−13 of −30
- −5Quality of growthAnalysts expect EPS +115% and revenue +22% in 2026, but that is due to a realised liquids price of USD 97.9/barrel and European gas at USD 15.8/mmbtu in Q2. Production grew only 3%. That is the commodity cycle, not a stronger company.
- −2ROIC through the cycleROIC 16.5% (TTM), but only 10.3% in 2025 vs 17.6% in 2024, 27% in 2023 and 67% in 2022. Returns follow oil and gas prices.
- −2Future segmentPower (renewables), which is to carry the transition, accounts for only about USD 2.4bn of 114bn of revenue (TTM). The rest is oil and gas, where long-term demand is uncertain.
- −2MoatEquinor is a price taker on oil and gas. The advantage is low costs: NCS projects with breakevens below USD 35/barrel and payback in under 2.5 years.
- −2Capital allocationIn 2025 USD 10.7bn was paid out (buybacks 5.9 + dividends 4.8) vs FCF of only USD 6.0bn. Net cash of USD 13.3bn in 2022 has turned into net debt of USD 11.9bn in 2025.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyP/B 2.26 is the highest in 5 years (1.45–2.21 in 2021–2025). EV/EBITDA 2.46 is above the 1.20–2.40 range, and the forward P/E of 9.6 is at the top of 5.3–10.1. The share price is up 54% in a year, and the multiples are measured on peak prices: on the 2027 estimate (EPS −22%) the P/E is about 9.4.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35
- −6Price normalisationAnalysts expect EPS −21.5% and revenue −8.5% in 2027 as oil and gas prices normalise. 8 of 25 analysts rate it sell or strong sell.
- −4US politics: offshore windImpairments of USD 1.4bn, mainly on Empire Wind and the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, sent Power into an operating loss of USD 1.6bn. Empire Wind 1 has been halted by two stop-work orders from the Trump administration.
- −2State ownershipThe Norwegian state owns about 67%; only about 505m of 2.38bn shares are free float. Minority shareholders have limited influence, and there is political risk of interference in capital allocation.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2BuybacksThe 2026 buyback has been doubled to USD 3bn, and the share count has fallen 8% in a year. The last 12 months' buybacks (5.5bn) plus dividends (3.7bn) are below FCF of USD 9.6bn.
- +2Raised production outlookAt the June 2026 CMD the NCS outlook for 2030 was raised by 100,000 boe/day to 1.35m; total target 2.3m boe/day and ROACE above 15% a year in 2026–2030. Q2 production was +3%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in USD, price in NOK. The net margin (8%) is low due to Norwegian petroleum tax (effective tax 73%), not weak operations – the operating margin is 29%. 2026 earnings rest on an oil price of about USD 98/barrel and European gas at USD 15.8/mmbtu (Q2). A peer check against Aker BP (EV/EBITDA 2.8, P/B 1.9, ROIC 8.8%) does not show Equinor to be relatively expensive – hence no peer deduction. The Ørsted stake (about 10%) has not been valued.
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