Rankings Construction & materials D.R. Horton
D.R. Horton
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−6
- Demand and interest rates−5
- Quality of growth−4
Strengths
- Balance sheet+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 152.93 USD
- Median analyst target
- 150.00 USD
- Upside to median
- −1.9%
- Analysts
- 21
- Target range
- 114.00 – 186.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +3%
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.1
- Forward P/E
- 16.3
- PEG
- 2.10
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−15 of −30
- −6MarginGross margin on home sales 20.7% in Q3 and 21.3% TTM vs 30.1% in FY22; operating margin 12.0% vs 23.0%. Management expects sales incentives to remain high in Q4.
- −2ROICROIC 10.4% vs WACC 9.9%; the return was 28.8% in FY22 and 18.1% in FY24 and is now close to the cost of capital.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue guidance for FY26 cut from USD 33.5–34.5bn to 32.5–33.0bn (about −4%), average selling price −2% to USD 362,000, and EPS is expected at 10.42 vs 16.51 in FY22.
- −3Capital allocationBuybacks of 2.97bn + dividends of USD 0.51bn TTM vs FCF of 3.20bn (FY25: 4.8bn vs 3.3bn); net debt has risen from 1.5 to 5.1bn since FY24, so the buyback is partly debt-financed in a downturn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 12.9 is at the top of own history (4.5-14.2 in FY21-FY25) because earnings are falling; P/B 1.64 is in the middle of the 1.2-2.4 range.
- −1PeersForward P/E 12.9 and EV/EBITDA 10.7 vs PulteGroup's 11.0 and 8.1 at the same P/B (1.63); Lennar trades at P/B 0.86.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−10 of −35
- −5Demand and interest ratesOrder intake was flat (23,084 homes) and the cancellation rate rose to 20% from 17%; competitor Lennar reported a worsening market in September, orders −9% and gross margin 15.8%, with rising mortgage rates.
- −4Inventory of unsold homesHousing inventory has risen to 38,000 from 29,600 in September 2025; 23,300 are unsold, of which 7,600 are completed - risk of more discounts or write-downs.
- −1Rental segmentRental revenue fell 30% and pre-tax income 43% in Q3 (margin 11.6%); sales of rental projects to investors are weak.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Balance sheetDebt/total capital 23%, liquidity 6.1bn USD and net debt/EBITDA 1.2 - robust for a homebuilder despite the increase.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year ends 30 September; Q4 FY2026 has NOT been reported yet (29 Oct 2026), so the figures run to 30 Jun 2026. Cyclical homebuilder: P/E is low at the peak and high at the trough, so P/B is included in T2. Debt includes Forestar and the financing business. The level of incentives (discounts, rate buydowns) is not quantified in the financial statements. Tariffs on building materials and labour (immigration) have not been examined. Insider trading has not been examined. 13F purchases earn no points.
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