Rankings Commodities & uranium Cassiar Gold
Cassiar Gold
53
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−13
- Funding−8
- Resource and studies−7
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Permit and First Nation agreement+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.21 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 356m
- Cash runway
- 11 months
- Cash / debt
- 6.9 / 0.0m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +13%
Bull case
The PEA shows a robust open pit at Taurus (e.g. NPV above C$300m at a high gold price), drilling converts inferred to indicated, and the Cassiar South restart (30–60,000 oz/year) provides early cash flow. At US$50–70 per oz – normal for developers with a PEA – 2.3 Moz corresponds to an EV of C$160–225m, i.e. 2–3x; more requires a takeover.
Bear case
The PEA disappoints (low grade of 0.95 g/t in northern BC gives high capex), the gold price falls, and the nearly empty cash balance forces an issue at C$0.25–0.35 (+20–30% shares). The share price could fall back to the 2025 level around C$0.25 (−45%).
Catalysts
- H2 2026 (targeted Q3, delayed)First PEA for the Taurus deposit (Ausenco) – NPV, IRR and capexbinary newsfilecorp.com
- Q4 2026Assay results from the 2026 drilling campaign (7,400 of 10,000 m drilled at Taurus and Newcoast as of 17/9)gradual stocktitan.net
- 27 Jan 2027Annual accounts for financial year 2026 (estimated date) – cash and spendinggradual stockanalysis.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – a large resource and insider buying, but almost empty cash, no economic study and a low-grade project that requires a very large investment.
Next financingPro forma cash approx. 6.9m C$ (1.37m at 31/3-2026 + 5.53m from the flow-through issue on 22/5) vs approx. 1.8m C$ in average quarterly burn gives approx. 11 months counted from 1/4-2026, i.e. only approx. 5 months from today – and this summer's drilling campaign has probably used more. The flow-through funds may only be used for exploration. A new issue is likely in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, preferably right after the PEA.
Warrants & convertibles7.27m flow-through warrants from May 2026 (one per unit at C$0.76; strike and expiry not found). Older warrants extended in May 2026 (number and strike not stated). Option program under a new incentive plan. No debt or convertibles.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO and board member Steve Letwin has bought over 500,000 shares at about C$0.50 (stated at an investor conference 22/7-2026; not verified on SEDI). No sales found.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders c. 10.5–14%; Crescat Capital has led earlier flow-through issues (stake not found).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 356m. (2) Hot theme: yes – gold. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – first PEA and drill results. (4) Major partner: no – no major found as shareholder or partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – a few months of real funds. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +86% in a year.
Why this asymmetryLow price per ounce, insider buying and a binary PEA in the near term give real upside. But the resource is 83% inferred and low-grade, cash is almost empty, and the price has already risen 86%, so an issue around the PEA is the most likely.
How the score is built
From 100 to 53, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.28 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.10 CAD
- Upside to median
- +286.0%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 1.10 – 1.10 CAD
- 52-week change
- +2%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−22 of −30
- −13MarginNo revenue; operating result −C$8.2m and net result −C$6.8m TTM (counted only here, not again under ROIC). All exploration is expensed, so the loss fluctuates between −C$1.2 and −3.8m per quarter with the drilling campaign.
- −7Resource and studiesResource of 2.3 Moz at 1.01 g/t, but about 83% is inferred: Taurus has 0.41 Moz indicated (8.8 Mt at 1.43 g/t) and 1.93 Moz inferred (63.2 Mt at 0.95 g/t). An economic study has never been published, so neither capex, NPV nor IRR is known.
- −2Capital allocationShare-based pay about C$0.95m in the past four quarters, new incentive plan in April 2026, and the company extended outstanding warrants in May 2026 – a gift to warrant holders at shareholders' expense.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Valuation vs history and resourceEV about C$75m corresponds to about C$33 (about US$23) per oz - cheap vs developers with studies, but the discount reflects that the resource is almost only inferred and without a PEA. P/B 8.7 is a record high (1.2-3.5 in 2021-25), though distorted by the 2024 write-down. The price is up 86% in a year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −8FundingOnly C$1.37m in cash and working capital of C$0.7m at 31/3-2026. The C$5.5m issue in May is flow-through money that must be spent on drilling, while the 10,000 m drilling campaign (7,400 m done) and the PEA cost the most. New capital is likely by Q1 2027 at the latest.
- −4DilutionThe share count has risen 13.3% over a year and 17–28% a year in 2021–25. The issue in May gave 7.27m flow-through units with a whole warrant per share, and older warrants have been extended.
- −4Permits and developmentA bulk-tonnage open pit at Taurus requires a full environmental assessment in BC; even the restart of Cassiar South requires re-permitting and, according to management, will take 18-24 months. The company has only 3 employees.
- −2Delayed PEAThe Ausenco PEA was commissioned in April 2026 and was targeted for Q3 2026 (September), but had not been published by the end of September; the latest update (17/9) does not mention it with a date.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Insider buyingCEO and board member Steve Letwin (former CEO of IAMGOLD) has bought over 500,000 shares at about C$0.50; insiders own about 14%, and the CEO has over 80% of his wealth in the company (management's statement, July 2026).
- +1Permit and First Nation agreementArea-based exploration permit extended to 2031 (200 drill sites) and exploration agreement with Dease River First Nation 22/9-2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Gold explorer in northern British Columbia (the Taurus deposit in Cassiar North and the formerly producing underground mines in Cassiar South) with no revenue. Fiscal year Oct.–Sep.; stockanalysis only has figures to 31/3-2026, so cash is calculated pro forma with the issue in May 2026 and is uncertain. No economic study (PEA) has been published; it was targeted for Q3 2026. P/B is distorted by a write-down of the mine assets in 2024 (PP&E fell from C$42.7m to 9.4m). Market cap: 161.5m shares × C$0.475 = about C$77m (about DKK 356m, close to Nordnet's 364m). Warrant terms, largest owners and SEDI insider trades have not been calculated systematically; the insider purchase comes from management's own presentation.
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