Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Deoleo
Deoleo
60
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs history and bid−7
- Minority shareholders' position−6
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Validation from bidders+2
- Debt reduction+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.64 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,317m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 31.5 / 136.0m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
Coricelli or a Spanish buyer completes at EUR 500m or more, and the minority shareholders get the same price as the funds: about EUR 0.39–0.45 per share (+10–25%). A bidding war that pushes the value to EUR 600m could give about EUR 0.50 (+40%). A 3–10x is not realistic.
Bear case
The government blocks, or the deal is structured as a sale of the operating company in which the minority shareholders get no offer. Without a takeover premium and with a normalised olive oil margin, the price could fall back towards 0.18–0.25 EUR (−30–50%).
Catalysts
- 2026-10 / Q4 2026Signing of a sales agreement with Coricelli (exclusivity and due diligence) – and whether the minority shareholders get a purchase offerbinary theobjective.com
- 30 Oct 2026Q3 2026 reportgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026 – H1 2027The Spanish government's approval or blocking of a foreign takeover (investment screening)binary eleconomista.es
Risk of going to zerolow - profitable company with moderate debt and positive FCF; the risk is that the takeover premium disappears, not bankruptcy.
Next financingNo need for capital: positive FCF (EUR 14.5m TTM) and net financial debt of c. EUR 85m (1.4x EBITDA). The restructuring is behind it (2020: debt conversion, the creditors received 49% of the operating company). The key point is the sale process: CVC and Alchemy are negotiating exclusively with Coricelli over a bid of EUR 500m in enterprise value; the terms for the minority shareholders have not been published.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found. Structural 'dilution' occurs at operating-company level: former creditors own approx. 49% of Deoleo Holding (from the 2020 restructuring, not verified for 2026).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found. Insiders own 0.09% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersCVC Capital Partners (50.9% according to the press, other sources 57%), Alchemy Partners (40.3%), Acesur (about 5%). The figures are not verified in the CNMV and may refer to a different group level.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 1.3bn. (2) Hot theme: no – olive oil. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – sale agreement and approval. (4) Major partner: yes in a sense – strategic bidders. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – positive FCF. (6) Price near the bottom: no – the price has doubled in a year.
Why this asymmetryThe price has already taken in most of the takeover: the bid roughly corresponds to 10-20% upside, while a failed takeover could cost 30-50%. Unclear terms for the minority shareholders and political opposition tilt the risk/return the wrong way.
How the score is built
From 100 to 60, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.34 EUR
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +80%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.4
- Forward P/E
- 13.9
- PEG
- 1.04
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−18 of −30
- −5MarginEBIT margin 7.3% TTM, but gross margin swings violently with olive oil prices (15% in 2024, 26% TTM), and there were losses in 2023 and 2024 (−EUR 18 and −28m). Net margin only 2.3%.
- −3ROICROIC 8.2% and ROE 8.7% are below WACC of 10.7% – even in a good year the company does not earn its cost of capital.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue fell 17.6% in 2025 and is -4.5% TTM. The H1 2026 result (EUR 19.4m) is lifted by EUR 13m of refunded US tariffs (IEEPA) - a one-off item; comparable EBITDA growth was 23%, not 52%.
- −3MoatStrong brands (Bertolli, Carbonell, Koipe), but olive oil is a commodity with tough competition from private label; Italy sales have fallen from EUR 143m to 86m since 2022, and pricing power is not enough to hold the margin when the raw material rises in price.
- −3Capital allocationHistorically massive value destruction: the 2020 restructuring gave creditors 49% of the operating company and heavily diluted the old shareholders; the price was EUR 0.18–0.29 in 2021–25.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Valuation vs history and bidP/B 0.39 is clearly above its own 2021–25 history (0.21–0.29), and the price has doubled in a year on takeover expectations. Trailing P/E 9.6 includes the tariff as a one-off item; forward P/E 14.1. A bid of EUR 500m in enterprise value corresponds roughly to approx. EUR 0.39–0.42 per share if Deoleo S.A. owns 51% of the operating company – only 10–20% above the price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −5Acquisition risk and political oppositionCVC and Alchemy are negotiating exclusively with Italy's Coricelli (EUR 500m), but the Spanish government is against a foreign takeover and can use investment screening to stop it. If the deal falls through, the takeover premium (the share price was about EUR 0.18 at the turn of the year) is at risk.
- −6Minority shareholders' positionThe funds CVC and Alchemy control the company, and the operating company is partly owned by former creditors. The bids are enterprise values for the group; it is unclear whether the minority shareholders in the listed company will get a purchase offer and at what price.
- −4Commodity riskThe margin depends on olive oil prices: record prices in 2023-24 sent the company into a loss, and gross margin has swung between 15 and 28%. A bad harvest could turn the picture again.
- −3Tariffs and US exposureNorth America is about 26% of sales; tariffs paid in the US in 2025-26 were refunded only because the IEEPA tariffs were struck down. New tariffs under other authorities will hit the margin directly.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Validation from biddersFive to six bidders (Coricelli 500, Dcoop 470, Acesur 460 m EUR, plus Lesieur, Cobram and others) show real strategic interest in the brands, equal to about 10x EBITDA.
- +1Debt reductionNet financial debt stable around EUR 85m and gearing fell to 1.4x EBITDA from 1.7x at the end of 2025.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Market cap checked myself: 500m shares x EUR 0.353 = about EUR 176.5m = about DKK 1,317m (Nordnet DKK 1,334m fits). No analyst coverage (the forecast page gives 404). Stockanalysis' EV of EUR 506m vs market cap 177 + net debt 105 suggests a large minority interest: after the 2020 restructuring Deoleo S.A. owns 51% of the operating company Deoleo Holding, while former creditors own 49% – the 2026 structure is not verified in the company's own accounts. The bids of EUR 460–500m are described as enterprise value; what the minority shareholders in Deoleo S.A. get (price per share, mandatory tender offer or not) has not been published. Ownership stakes for CVC (50.9%) and Alchemy (40.3%) in the press do not match stockanalysis' free float of 189m shares and may apply to a different level in the group. Olive oil is a commodity, but Deoleo is a brand bottler, not a producer, so cyclical is set to false; the commodity risk counts in T3.
Also in Food, drinks & restaurants
The highest scores in the same industry.
