Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Fjord Defence Group
Fjord Defence Group
60
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Quality of growth−6
- Capital allocation−6
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Order book+3
- Owner commitment at sellers+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 60, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 12.55 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −3%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−19 of −30
- −5MarginAs reported, the group is still loss-making: EBIT −134m NOK and net result −138m TTM, weighed down by the old seismic business, amortisation and acquisition costs. The defence segment showed a pro forma EBITDA margin of 17.3% in Q2 (42.4m on 245.4m), but that is pro forma and before amortisation of excess values.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue about tripled in Q2, but almost all growth was bought: Fjord Defence AS (2025), Fjord Defence Marine (June 2026, EV about 170m) and PartnerTech Karlskoga (August 2026, EV about SEK 900m). Organic growth is not disclosed, and the 2029 ambition (EBITDA 400-500m) presupposes more acquisitions.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 18m (2024) to about 117m (+550%), and shares worth about NOK 926m have been issued in 1.5 years. The acquisitions were done at sensible multiples (about 5x EBITDA for Marine and about 8x for PartnerTech), but paid with shares at NOK 15–16.50 and debt. Goodwill was 550m even before PartnerTech.
- −2MoatPartnerTech has over 30 years of sole-source relationships with two of Europe's most important defence OEMs, which is a real position, but it is contract manufacturing to the customer's design with limited pricing power. Fjord Defence AS won its first series contract with a new customer in September (NOK 11.5m fixed).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs peers and absolute levelEV is about NOK 2.0bn (1.60bn in market cap plus estimated net debt of about 400m), about 9-10x guided pro forma EBITDA for 2026 (190-230m) and about 2x pro forma revenue (about 1bn). Kitron trades at EV/EBITDA 18 and MilDef at 23. Cheap vs peers, but on guidance and pro forma, not on reported figures.
- −2Own historyOwn history cannot be used (seismic company until 2025). Reported P/E and EV/EBIT are negative, and P/TBV is 5.1. The price rests entirely on the pro forma figures holding.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −5Customer concentrationAbout 92% of PartnerTech's revenue (which will become about 60–65% of the group) comes from defence OEMs, and the bulk from two customers. Loss or insourcing at one of them would hit the group hard.
- −5Integration and execution riskThree acquisitions in approx. a year, of which PartnerTech (EV SEK 900m) is larger than the rest of the group combined. A small holding company must integrate Swedish and Norwegian units while winding down the old seismic business. Guidance for 2027 only comes with the Q3 report.
- −3DebtThe cash part of the PartnerTech purchase price (SEK 451m) was financed with the issue and a draw on the acquisition facility at Nordea. Interest-bearing debt was NOK 236m already at 30/6, before PartnerTech and its own net debt. Estimated net debt is about 2x pro forma EBITDA.
- −2Legacy of seismic and dilutionThe company is the former Axxis Geo Solutions/Aquila Holdings with a multi-client seismic library (Norway and Egypt), which has produced large losses (EBIT −110m in 2024). Shareholders have been diluted about 6 times in 1.5 years, and the 2029 ambition probably requires more issues.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Order bookThe order book is approx. NOK 1.8bn incl. PartnerTech, approx. 1.8x the guided pro forma revenue for 2026, which gives high visibility.
- +1Owner commitment at sellersThe PartnerTech seller Permec Group and management received consideration shares worth about SEK 257m with a 24-month lock-up (50% after 12 months), so the sellers have an interest in the share price performance.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Stockanalysis' share count (100.05m) and market cap (NOK 1.38bn) are outdated: after the directed issue (25m shares at NOK 16.50) there were 101.12m shares, and on completion of the PartnerTech acquisition on 26/8, 15.77m consideration shares were added. That gives c. 116.9m shares × NOK 13.70 = NOK 1.60bn ≈ DKK 1,101m (Nordnet: DKK 1,115m). Stockanalysis' TTM figures (revenue 117m, EBIT −134m) cover only a small part of the current group and include the old seismic business (formerly Axxis Geo Solutions/Aquila Holdings). Pro forma net debt after PartnerTech (EV SEK 900m, partly financed with a Nordea acquisition facility) is not disclosed; c. NOK 400m is an estimate. Operating company with no real 'burn' in the defence segment (pro forma EBITDA guidance 190–230m for 2026), so runway is set to null. Short data not found.
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