Rankings Utilities & power Endesa
Endesa
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−8
- FCF yield−3
- Quality of growth−2
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Low leverage+1
- Regulated network growth+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 43.54 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 38.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- −12.7%
- Analysts
- 23
- Target range
- 26.20 – 44.30 EUR
- 52-week change
- +40%
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.4
- Forward P/E
- 18.2
- PEG
- 2.06
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−4 of −30
- −2Quality of growthRevenue has been flat at about €21bn since 2024, and analysts expect only about 1% annual revenue growth and 4.9% EPS growth over the next three years; part of the half-year lift came from 8% lower fixed costs and a weak H1 2025.
- −2Capital allocationDividend €1.38bn + buybacks €0.88bn TTM = €2.26bn vs. FCF of €2.01bn, net borrowing +€0.5bn; the €2bn buyback programme is being carried out at P/B 4.7 – the highest in at least five years.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−11 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 17.8 vs 10.4–15.3 in 2021–2025 (clearly above the top) and P/B 4.67 vs 2.43–3.86, while EV/EBITDA 9.3 vs 6.9–10.5 is mid-range. More expensive than the parent Enel (forward P/E 11.8) and Engie (11.2) after +57% in 52 weeks.
- −3FCF yieldFCF yield 4.7% TTM, P/FCF 21 vs 8–15 in 2023–2025; analysts expect FCF of €1.68bn in 2026, about 3.9% of the market cap of €43bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−5 of −35
- −2Market prices and earnings volatilityOnly about half of EBITDA is regulated; the rest follows power prices and customer margins (pool price €73/MWh, −8% in H1). EPS has swung from €2.40 (2022) to €0.70 (2023) and €1.78 (2024).
- −2Nuclear power (phase-out and tax)Endesa owns 36% of Almaraz, which has only been extended to June 2030 within an ongoing phase-out plan; Iberdrola, Endesa and Naturgy have reopened the dispute over nuclear taxes and levies of about €1.5bn a year for the sector.
- −1Controlling shareholderEnel owns about 70% (free float 293m of 1,023m shares) and has rising net debt of its own; minority shareholders have no real influence over dividend and investment policy.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceOrdinary net income for 2026 guided to over €2.4bn (from 2.3–2.4bn) after +42% in H1; EBITDA +20% to €3.24bn, and fixed costs fell 8%.
- +1Low leverageNet debt €10.3bn, net debt/EBITDA 1.6x, average cost of debt 3.2% and interest cover 11.7x – markedly lower leverage than Iberdrola (3.8x) and Enel.
- +1Regulated network growthDistribution EBITDA rose 24% to EUR 1.2bn in H1 (36% of the group), and distribution investment rose 38% to EUR 0.6bn (52% of capex); ROIC 12.3% vs a WACC of 6.3%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Endesa is about 70% owned by Enel (free float about 29%), so price formation and dividend policy are influenced by the parent. Reported and ordinary net income are close (1,470 vs 1,480 €m in H1), so adjusted vs reported EPS is not an issue here. Stockanalysis' −2.0% in share count was checked against the cash flow: buybacks of €876m TTM, 35m shares bought and 17m cancelled as of June. The share price is up 57% in 52 weeks, and the analyst consensus is 'Sell' with a median price target of €36.60 – some price targets may be outdated after the rally. Spanish grid regulation (CNMC 6.58% for 2026–2031) did not trigger a deduction because Endesa's distribution EBITDA rose 24% and management cites a new royal decree on a higher investment cap as a tailwind. The April 2025 blackout, credit rating and insider trading have not been investigated.
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