Rankings Pharma & medtech Evaxion
Evaxion
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−15
- Funding−10
- Capital allocation−9
Strengths
- Validation from a large partner+3
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.92 USD
- Median analyst target
- 12.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +311.0%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 9.00 – 16.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −49%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−30 of −30
- −15MarginNo recurring revenue: TTM revenue of USD 7.49m is MSD's license payment for EVX-B3, and the operating result is still −8.7m. The operating loss has been USD 9–26m every year in 2021–2025.
- −9Capital allocationThe share count rose 195% over a year via ATM sales, warrant redemption and conversion of EIB debt to shares. The price per ADS (adjusted) has fallen from USD 221 at end-2021 to 3.20 – lasting value loss for shareholders.
- −6Moat and competitionPersonalised neoantigen vaccines are a field where Moderna/Merck (intismeran) and BioNTech are already in phase 3 with billion-dollar budgets. EVX-01 is based on a phase 2 study with 16 patients, and the AI platform is not a documented moat.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−4 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B 2.80 vs 2.34 at the end of 2025 and 3.15–5.16 in 2021–2022 (negative equity in 2023–2024). P/S 3.56 vs 5.29 in 2025, but revenue is a one-off payment, so the multiples say little.
- −2Peers and absolute levelEV about USD 20m vs Transgene (EV EUR 101m, personal vaccine TG4050) and Nykode (EV NOK 709m). Cheap relative to peers, but FCF yield is -27%, and there is only USD 14m in cash.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−19 of −35
- −10FundingCash fell from USD 18.4m to 14.0m in Q2 (net loss of 3.7m per quarter), which gives approx. 10 months of runway with the formula. The company says H2 2027 and has previously financed itself with ATM and warrants (USD 7.2m in Oct. 2025). New dilution is likely in 2027.
- −6Data qualityEVX-01's ORR of 75% (12 of 16) comes from an open-label single-arm study in combination with anti-PD-1, so the vaccine's own effect cannot be separated. A randomized phase 2b/3 study requires a partner, which has not yet been found.
- −3LiquidityAverage trading of about 43,000 ADS a day (about 0.14 m USD) and a free float of 5.7 m ADS. Large orders can move the share price markedly.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Validation from a large partnerMSD paid USD 7.5m in Sept. 2025 to license the gonorrhoea vaccine EVX-B3 and can pay up to USD 592m in milestones plus royalties.
- +1Net cashCash USD 14.0m vs debt of 7.1m (EIB loan and leases), i.e. net cash USD 6.9m or about 26% of market cap.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Danish company listed as an ADS on Nasdaq (EVAX); figures in USD from stockanalysis and the company's Q2 release. The TTM revenue of USD 7.5m is really MSD's one-off payment for EVX-B3 (Sept 2025), not recurring sales. The company says cash lasts into H2 2027, but Q2 burn gives only about 10 months with the formula. Largest owners, insider trades and going concern wording in the 20-F/6-K have not been reviewed. The share price is after ADS changes, so historical prices are not directly comparable.
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