Rankings Commodities & uranium Excellon Resources
Excellon Resources
45
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Valuation vs history−10
- Capital allocation and track record−7
Strengths
- Cheap infrastructure purchase+2
- Large partner+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 1.58 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 696m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 15.0 / 4.7m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +95%
Bull case
The 400 ramp gives access to broader zones, Mallay reaches 600 t/d in 2027 and produces approx. 2m oz AgEq a year at silver above $70/oz, and deeper drilling increases the resource markedly. With EBITDA of C$40–60m and EV/EBITDA of 5–6, the market cap could reach C$300–450m – 2–3x today's; Tres Cerros and Kilgore are free options.
Bear case
The ramp-up and stable operation are delayed again, the narrow remaining zones give low grade and high costs, and cash runs out, so shares must be issued at a low price. The company has previously closed Platosa and had negative equity; a new failure could send the stock to 0.10–0.15 C$.
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report (estimated) – first concentrate sales and cash balancegradual stockanalysis.com
- End of 2026400 ramp completed and updated mine plan with a timetable for 600 t/dgradual discoveryalert.com
- End of 2026 / Q1 2027Updated resource estimate for Mallay with deeper drilling (below the 4090 level)gradual excellonresources.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – the plant is producing, and Glencore is behind it, but the resource is small, cash is short, and the company has a history of failed projects.
Next financingCash of about C$15m (30/6) lasts about 6 months at Q2 spending, before concentrate sales are counted. Glencore instalments run through 2027, and the 400 ramp must be completed. A new issue is likely around the turn of 2026/27 unless Mallay quickly becomes cash flow positive; the subsidiary Saxony Silver is raising its own money.
Warrants & convertiblesWarrants at CAD 0.15 from December 2024 (9.75m, expiring Dec. 2026) and from the May 2025 issue (half a warrant per unit, CAD 0.15) – all far below the share price and probably partly exercised. Terms for warrants from the March 2026 issue (CAD 21.8m) not found. No convertibles found; the Glencore prepayment is debt.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found for the last 12 months (not systematically checked). Eric Sprott was lead investor in the C$8m issue in May 2025. Insiders own c. 10% according to stockanalysis; stock options and share units were granted 10/4-2026.
Largest ownersEric Sprott (stake not found); insiders about 10%; institutions about 5%. Others not examined.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$150m (approx. DKK 700m). (2) Hot theme: yes – silver. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – 400 ramp, new mine plan and resource before year-end. (4) Major partner: partial – Glencore as offtaker and lender, not as an owner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 6 months of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −4% in a year and below the moving averages, but far above the 2024 level.
Why this asymmetryThe smallest and cheapest of the four measured by EV per resource ounce, with a finished plant and Glencore as partner, so a successful start-up could give a multi-fold return. But the resource is small, the start-up is already delayed, and the short runway makes another dilution likely.
How the score is built
From 100 to 45, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.26 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 0.75 CAD
- Upside to median
- +194.1%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 0.50 – 0.95 CAD
- 52-week change
- −4%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue in the last 12 months (first concentrate sold in August 2026); operating loss −C$8.7m and net loss −C$8.4m TTM (ROE −22%, counted only here).
- −6Resource and studiesSmall resource: 0.89m t at 420 g/t AgEq indicated (12.0m oz AgEq) and 4.0m oz inferred - about 8 years of operation at 2m oz/year. The restart is not based on reserves or a feasibility study, and current production comes from narrow remnant areas (about 1.5 m).
- −7Capital allocation and track recordThe share count has risen from about 38m (2022, after a 1:5 consolidation in 2020) to 441m. The Platosa mine in Mexico was closed, and equity was negative in 2022–23; Mallay is the third attempt to become a producer.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−10 of −35
- −10Valuation vs historyP/B 2.7 vs 0.9 in 2024 (5.1 at the end of 2025), and the market value has grown from CAD 12m to 150m in two years. EV approx. CAD 137m equals approx. CAD 8.5 per oz AgEq in the resource – not expensive at today's silver price, but without reserves and with unproven operations. Forward P/E 24 is based on 3 analysts' estimates.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −6Start-up and delayThe target was 600 t/d in Q2 2026; now stable operation at 400–600 t/d is only expected in early or mid-2027, after the 400 ramp has been refurbished (target: end of 2026). First concentrate came 13 months after the takeover.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen about 95% over a year; issues in May 2025 (C$8m), September 2025 (about C$8m) and March 2026 (C$21.8m), and warrants at C$0.15 are far below the price.
- −5Liquidity and debtWorking capital deficit at 31/12-2025; cash approx. CAD 15m at 30/6-2026 vs FCF of approx. CAD −8m in the quarter. The Glencore prepayment (up to USD 7.5m, SOFR+5%) is repaid monthly through 2027, while production is still below capacity.
- −2JurisdictionOne mine in Peru with political instability, social conflicts in mining districts and widespread informal mining.
- −1SentimentThe stock fell 14% in the week to 16/9-2026 and trades below the 50- and 200-day averages (C$0.39 and 0.45); −4% over 52 weeks despite silver near a record.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Cheap infrastructure purchaseMallay has a fully permitted 600 t/d flotation plant and underground infrastructure in which Buenaventura invested about US$115m; Excellon took it over for a fraction of that.
- +2Large partnerGlencore has taken 100% of the zinc and lead concentrate and financed the restart with a prepayment of up to US$7.5m.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). The Mallay mine in Peru has been restarted on a pre-testing basis (first concentrate July/August 2026) with no reserves and no feasibility study; there is no published AISC, NPV or production guidance beyond about 2m oz AgEq/year at full capacity. The price and terms of the C$21.8m issue in March 2026 and the rise in share count from 391m (30/6) to 441m are not verified (probably warrant exercises and/or a new issue). Stockanalysis shows −32% in share count QoQ, which appears to be a data error. Only 3 analysts. Insider trades in 2026 have not been investigated systematically.
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