Rankings Pharma & medtech GenSight Biologics
GenSight Biologics
31
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Going concern and financing needs−11
- Absolute level−7
Strengths
- Willingness to pay+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 0.70 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 163m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 1.7 / 12.8m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +46%
Bull case
GenSight lands a financing of 15–20 m EUR or a partner agreement. AAC revenue grows to over 15 m EUR a year, FDA approves the RECOVER protocol in Q4 2026, and the study starts in 2027. The market then prices a probable European and US comeback for LUMEVOQ, and an EV of 80–120 m EUR (even after 50% dilution) could give 2–4x. 10x requires an acquisition.
Bear case
The financing fails to materialize before March 2027. Heights' repayments and the French repayments of 13.2 m EUR in 2027 strangle the company, and money is raised at 0.03–0.05 EUR with 100%+ dilution, or the company goes into sauvegarde/redressement, where the old shareholders are left with almost nothing.
Catalysts
- Oct 2026Selection of CRO for the phase III study RECOVER (end of October)gradual abcbourse.com
- Q4 2026Meeting with the FDA on the final RECOVER protocol; last patient in the dose study REVISE (December)binary webdisclosure.fr
- Q1 2027Structural financing must be in place before March 2027; new GMP batch released in March 2027binary webdisclosure.fr
- H2 2027Planned start of the phase III RECOVER study (subject to funding)gradual abcbourse.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – auditor's going concern qualification, EUR 1.7m in cash, negative equity and EUR 13.2m in repayments falling due in 2027
Next financingCash fell from EUR 3.2m to EUR 1.7m in Q2 2026. According to the company, the AAC payments cover operations in 2026, but the auditor requires structural financing before March 2027, and the net need for RECOVER and production is about EUR 16m through September 2027 (about 75% of market cap). Expect new issues with warrants at around EUR 0.08-0.10 or lower, or a partner/licence deal. No restructuring is under way, but EUR 13.2m of French repayments fall due in November 2027.
Warrants & convertibles18.4m new BSA warrants from the issues in 2025–26 and 4.27m prefunded warrants (unexercised as of 30/6-2026); convertible bond with Heights Capital of EUR 5.7m nominal with quarterly installments of EUR 0.7m until December 2027 (installments can be paid in shares).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo management trades found. The existing major shareholders (Sofinnova, UPMC Enterprises, Invus, Heights Capital, Alumni Capital) participated in the issues in 2025–26 (not reviewed in detail).
Largest ownersSofinnova about 23%, UPMC Enterprises about 8%, Bpifrance about 1.6% (undiluted; latest disclosed distribution), plus Invus and Heights Capital
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 22m. (2) Hot theme: partial – gene therapy is out of fashion, but eye diseases are still interesting to partners. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – FDA meeting and financing, but the actual data are years in the future. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – only a few months. (6) Price near the bottom after a large decline: yes – −98% since 2021 and −44% in a year.
Why this asymmetryThere is a real product with documented willingness to pay, but the company has cash for a few months, negative equity, large repayments and a phase III study that only starts in 2027. All upside must be shared with new investors through heavy dilution.
How the score is built
From 100 to 31, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.07 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 0.31 EUR
- Upside to median
- +338.5%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 0.21 – 0.40 EUR
- 52-week change
- −49%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −12MarginOperating loss of EUR 8.5m and net loss of EUR 10.3m in H1 2026 (EUR 7.0m in H1 2025); loss of EUR 11–30m every year since 2021.
- −5Quality of growthAll revenue comes from temporary compassionate use programmes (AAC in France at EUR 425,000 per injection and a paid programme in Israel). 25–35% of the French AAC revenue for 2026 must be repaid in November 2027, and a repayment provision of EUR 13.2m makes reported revenue negative.
- −4MoatLUMEVOQ (gene therapy for the rare eye disease LHON) has no marketing authorization anywhere and must go through a new phase III study (RECOVER) before approval can be sought. The moat is a single product in a very small niche.
- −6Capital allocationRepeated small issues with attached warrants at ever lower prices (EUR 0.08 in December 2025, EUR 0.0943 in March 2026). The share count rose 55% in 2025 and 98% in 2024, and the price has fallen from EUR 5.56 (2021) to about EUR 0.09.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyNegative equity (−EUR 33.6m, P/B −0.69) and negative revenue, so no multiple can be compared with history. The share price is at the bottom, but that is due to dilution and not because the value is cheap.
- −7Absolute levelEV about EUR 34m (plus a repayment provision of EUR 13.2m) for a company with no approved product, with negative equity and a funding need of about EUR 16m net until September 2027. No earnings or FCF (FCF yield -36%).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−28 of −35
- −11Going concern and financing needsThe auditor states 'material uncertainty about going concern' in the H1 report. Cash was EUR 1.7m as of 30/6/2026 (EUR 3.2m as of 31/3), and the company must secure structural financing before March 2027. The net need is about EUR 16m until September 2027, about 75% of the market cap.
- −6Regulatory and clinical timelineThe phase III study RECOVER will only start in H2 2027 'subject to financing'. The meeting with the FDA on the protocol is only planned before the end of 2026, and a new GMP batch is released in March 2027 at the earliest, so an approval is unlikely before 2029-30.
- −7Debt and obligationsConvertible bond at Heights Capital of EUR 5.7m (instalments in June and September 2026 postponed to December 2027), repayment provision of EUR 13.2m and a current ratio of 0.35. Total debt EUR 12.8m vs cash of EUR 1.7m.
- −4Share price riskThe price has fallen 44% over 52 weeks and about 98% since 2021; Piotroski F-score 2.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Willingness to payFrench hospitals pay 425,000 EUR per injection under AAC, and 6.8 m EUR was paid in during H1 2026. That lowered the operating cash burn 37% to 1.6 m EUR in the half-year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Reported revenue is negative (−1.2m EUR in H1 2026) because expected French rebates (remises) on the AAC programme are offset under IFRS 15; cash receipts were 6.5–6.8m EUR. Stockanalysis' margin and P/S figures are therefore meaningless. Market cap calculated myself: 235.5m shares × 0.093 EUR ≈ 21.9m EUR ≈ 163m kr (Nordnet shows 200m kr). Insider trades not reviewed; only 2 analysts.
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