Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants HelloFresh

HelloFresh

Food, drinks & restaurants · GermanyRank 441 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Quality of growth−8
Lowered guidance−7
Margin−6

Strengths

Insider buying+3

How the score is built

From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

58Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 2.87 EUR
Median analyst target: 3.40 EUR
Upside to median: +18.5%
Analysts: 11
Target range: 1.80 – 8.35 EUR
52-week change: −59%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: 8.3
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−24 of −30

Margin
The operating margin is 0.86% TTM (6.29% in 2021), and net income is −EUR 34.8m TTM after losses of −136m (2024) and −93m (2025). The adjusted EBITDA margin fell in H1 2026 to 4.5% (6.0%).
stockanalysis.com
−6
Quality of growth
Revenue is -12.6% TTM at EUR 6.36bn, and the number of orders fell 13.7% in Q2 2026 (21.8m). Growth in order value (+6.5%) does not cover the loss of customers, and the company has cut marketing to 14.9% of revenue to defend the margin.
deraktionaer.de
−8
ROIC
ROIC has fallen from 64.7% (2021) and 16.4% (2022) to 4.8% TTM, i.e. in line with the cost of capital.
stockanalysis.com
−2
Segment of the future / moat
The Ready-to-Eat growth segment (Factor) fell 8.4% (constant currency) in Q2 and had adjusted EBITDA of -EUR 13.6m in H1 2026. Meal kits have low switching costs, and customers disappear when marketing is cut back.
deraktionaer.de
−5
Capital allocation
The company spent about EUR 152m on buybacks from the start of 2025 until the programme stopped early, mainly at prices far above the current EUR 2.69. Meanwhile equity has fallen from EUR 1,019m (2023) to EUR 630m after losses and write-downs on the large production build-out.
boerse-express.com
−3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/S 0.06 (0.13-1.96 in 2021-2025), EV/EBITDA 3.5 (6.6-26), forward P/E 7.1 (10.4-40.6) and P/B 0.61 (1.35-13). The stock is cheap on almost all multiples, but EV/EBIT is 16.2 versus 12.6 at the end of 2025, because the actual operations (EBIT) have shrunk.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 2 findings−12 of −35

Lowered guidance
On 24/9-2026 HelloFresh cut its 2026 outlook: revenue -9 to -11% (cc) versus previously the lower end of -3 to -6%, and adjusted EBITDA 350-370m EUR (previously 375-425). Q3 is expected at -11 to -12% in revenue and EBITDA of 45-55m (consensus 57). The cause is weak customer intake in the back-to-school period.
ms-aktuell.de
−7
Debt and working capital
Net debt including leasing is EUR 504m (3.2x EBITDA), current ratio 0.69, quick ratio 0.33 and working capital -251m. The model is built on negative working capital, which drains liquidity when revenue shrinks: free cash flow in H1 fell to EUR 49m (156m). Interest coverage is only 1.7x.
stockanalysis.com
−5

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+3 of +15

Insider buying
Active Ownership (mandatory disclosures as a person closely associated with a senior executive) has bought shares and exercised options in September and October 2026, including 94,856 shares for 225,758 EUR on 9/10-2026. Board member Edward Boyes bought approx. 23,300 shares at 3.88-3.89 EUR on 31/3-2026.
goldesel.de
+3

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

HelloFresh is NOT in restructuring; the standard calibration is used. It is not a classic penny stock (market cap approx. 387m EUR). Market cap is calculated as 144.08m shares × 2.687 EUR = 387m EUR (approx. 2,889m DKK); Nordnet shows 2,518m DKK, probably with a different share count (treasury shares). Debt of 750.7m EUR is 571m EUR lease liabilities; financial debt is approx. 179m EUR (of which 73m short-term) versus cash of 247m EUR as of 30 Jun 2026. The Q3 figures in the guidance cut on 24 Sep are preliminary; the full report is due 5 Nov 2026. Active Ownership's total stake and the full extent of its purchases are not verified. Peer multiples and short interest (Bundesanzeiger) have not been examined. The price target (avg. 4.24 EUR, 12 analysts) is not used in the findings.