Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Hensoldt

Hensoldt

Defence, aerospace & space · GermanyRank 441 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history−14
Margin−4
FCF yield−4

Strengths

Order book+2

How the score is built

From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

58Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 82.66 EUR
Median analyst target: 94.00 EUR
Upside to median: +13.7%
Analysts: 16
Target range: 60.00 – 105.00 EUR
52-week change: −9%
P/E (trailing): 81.8
Forward P/E: 38.3
PEG: 1.16

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30

Margin
Operating margin 9.5% and net margin only 4.5% TTM; the gross margin has fallen from 23.0% (2021–22) to 21.0%. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.8% in H1, far from the full-year target of 18.5–19.0%, so the 'adjusted' profitability depends on large H2 deliveries and adjustments.
stockanalysis.com
−4
ROIC and capital allocation
ROIC fell from 14.2% (2024) to 8.2% TTM after the debt-funded purchase of ESG (€543m in 2024) and new acquisitions (€93m TTM); ROCE 8.1%. The return is close to the cost of capital.
stockanalysis.com
−3
Quality of growth
Revenue guidance of about €2.75bn for 2026 is below consensus (€2.80bn), and growth is largely driven by Optronics orders for armoured vehicles, which historically have a lower margin than Sensors.
finanzen.ch
−1

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 3 findings−21 of −35

Multiples vs own history
Forward P/E 34.5 (about 40 on 2026E EPS of 1.89, 30 on 2027E) vs 9.7–18.7 in 2021–24 and 38.9 in 2025; EV/EBITDA 25.2 vs 9.8–18.5 in 2021–24; EV/EBIT 38; P/B 8.9 vs 3.2–4.5. Despite the fall in 2026 the stock still trades at about double its pre-rally multiples.
stockanalysis.com
−14
Peers
A forward P/E of 30–40 is in line with Saab and Kongsberg (about 34–36), but clearly above Rheinmetall (21–26) and Northrop Grumman (about 17) – with a lower net margin and higher debt than all of them.
stockanalysis.com
−3
FCF yield
The 5.1% FCF yield TTM is lifted by prepayments; on analysts' 2026 FCF estimate (€201m) the yield is about 2.3% of the roughly €8.7bn market value, and the earnings yield is 1.4%.
stockanalysis.com
−4

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35

H2 dependence and cash flow
Adjusted FCF was −€136m in H1 2026, and the full-year EBITDA margin target (18.5–19.0%) requires an H2 margin of around 24% vs 11.8% in H1. Any delay in deliveries or government payments hits the year directly.
finanznachrichten.de
−4
Debt
Net debt €1.10bn (30/6) vs €0.70bn at the start of the year; debt/EBITDA 4.4, net debt/EBITDA 3.2 and interest cover only 2.5. Altman Z-score 1.97.
stockanalysis.com
−4
Customer and politics
The German state is both the main customer and a major shareholder. After the AfD's strong election in Saxony-Anhalt (Sept 2026), a long-term risk to German defence spending has been flagged, and the stock has fallen about 20% in 30 days.
goldesel.de
−4
Macro
The case rests on the war in Ukraine and European rearmament; a ceasefire or budget pressure would hit both order intake and the high multiple. The sector trades nervously (Middle East, oil above $100, US–China negotiations).
wallstreet-online.de
−3

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15

Order book
Order intake doubled to €2.81bn in H1 2026 (expectation €1.23bn), and the order book exceeded €10bn, about 3.7 times annual revenue; book-to-bill guidance of 1.5–2.0.
finanznachrichten.de
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

The price is about €75 after −26% over 52 weeks and about −20% over 30 days, but multiples are still far above the level before the defence rally. TTM FCF (€443m) is inflated by prepayments (+€586m in other operating items); analysts expect only about €201m in 2026, and adjusted FCF was −€136m in H1. stockanalysis shows +5.9% in share count quarter on quarter, which has not been verified (no capital increase found); no deduction has been made for it. The ownership structure (the German state and Leonardo as major shareholders) and insider trades have not been examined.