Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Hilbert Group
Hilbert Group
34
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Liquidity−10
- Capital allocation−8
Strengths
- AUM and fee growth+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 2
- Price
- 1.13 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 148m
- Cash runway
- 2 months
- Cash / debt
- 16.8 / 66.9m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +62%
Bull case
A new crypto bull market lifts AUM from USD 120m to 400-500m, and Enigma and Syntetika provide performance fees. With the savings, the company can reach break-even at about SEK 80-100m in fees, and then the market cap can rise 3-5x from about SEK 220m.
Bear case
The crypto market falls, AUM and fees stagnate, and cash must be topped up via the LDA equity line and Helena convertibles at ever lower prices (a classic dilution spiral). With 67m of debt and spending of about 100m a year, the stock could go toward zero.
Catalysts
- 6 Oct 2026Enigma One (market-neutral statistical arbitrage, target 40-60% gross return) opens on-chain via Syntetika Vaultgradual hilbert.group
- 30 Nov 2026Q3 report: fee income, effect of the savings, cash and use of the LDA facilitybinary stockanalysis.com
- Undated (applied July 2026)Decision on MiCA and payment license in Maltabinary hilbert.group
Risk of going to zerohigh – very short cash relative to burn, debt above equity, financing via convertibles and an equity line, and a price that has fallen 87% in a year
Next financingCash was SEK 16.8m at 30/6 (plus about 7m from the extension of the targeted issue in July) vs TTM operating spending of about 28m per quarter, so reported cash alone lasts only a few months. The company calls the runway 'sufficient', probably because it counts on the LDA equity line, cost savings of about 25% and rising fees, but the equity line is not secure financing and dilutes continuously at low prices. New capital via LDA, Helena or a targeted issue is likely as early as Q4 2026.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertibles from Helena Global Investment Opportunities (SEK 27.6m issued April 2026, previously converted at an average of kr 5.85; USD 250,000 bought back against 2.16m shares in August; remaining amount not confirmed) plus 368,040 free warrants to Helena. Equity line of SEK 150m over 3 years with LDA Capital. Earn-out to the sellers of Nordark is paid in shares (1.98m shares in August).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo specific insider purchases or sales found (not reviewed in detail). Insiders own c. 24.5% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot quantified. Insiders c. 24.5%, institutions c. 19.1% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 150m. (2) Hot theme: yes, crypto, tokenization and AI trading. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, product launches (Enigma One, Syntetika) and a license application, but no binary data. (4) Major partner: partial, collaboration with Xapo Bank on the Byzantine fund. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, a few months of cash and dependence on an equity line. (6) Price near the bottom: yes, −87% in a year.
Why this asymmetryA crypto bull market could give a sharp rise, and AUM is growing, but the financing structure (Helena convertibles and LDA equity line) means the upside is continuously sold to the financiers, while burn is far greater than fees. The downside is real and close to total.
How the score is built
From 100 to 34, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.29 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −79%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue was SEK 3.7m in Q2 2026 vs an operating loss of 36.3m and a net loss of 44.6m. Over TTM the operating loss is 212m on 120m of revenue, and the gross margin is negative (−83%).
- −6Quality of growthRevenue fell 92% (Q2: 3.7m vs 46.2m). Revenue of 204m in 2025 was primarily trading revenue with negative gross margin (-90m), not fees. Management emphasizes that management fees rose 74% quarter over quarter, but from a very small base.
- −4MoatQuantitative crypto strategies are a competitive and performance-dependent business. Contracted AUM of USD 119.5m (including the Xapo Byzantine fund) is small, and the new legs (Syntetika, Hilbert Finance, Enigma) are all in start-up.
- −8Capital allocationAcquisitions paid with shares and earn-outs (Nordark), a net loss of SEK 105m in Q4 2025, a loss of 19.5m on early redemption of a EUR convertible in shares and an investment phase of approx. 60m over 12 months, without it having produced a profitable business.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyP/B is 6.3 vs 1.0–13.5 in 2021–2024 (negative equity in 2025). EV/Sales of 2.1 looks low vs 3–14, but that is due to the artificially high trading revenue in 2025.
- −7Peers and absolute levelAn EV of about SEK 257m corresponds to about 17x annualised fee revenue (about 15m) and about 23% of contracted AUM (about SEK 1.1bn). Listed asset managers typically trade at 1–5% of AUM, and they are profitable.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−25 of −35
- −10LiquidityCash was SEK 16.8m at 30/6 vs debt of 66.9m, a current ratio of 0.91 and operating spending of 113m over the last 12 months (about 28m per quarter). The company calls the runway 'sufficient' and plans to cut about 25% of costs, but gives no figures.
- −6Financing structure and dilutionThe share count has risen 58% over a year. Financing comes from convertibles from Helena Global (SEK 27.6m plus free warrants), an equity line of SEK 150m over 3 years with LDA Capital and directed issues (13.5m shares at SEK 3.935 in May–July). Each draw happens at a falling price.
- −3ManagementCFO Sylvana Sciberras stepped down in June 2026, and the company has announced a management change in the middle of the shift from investment to earnings.
- −4Crypto and regulatory dependenceAUM, fees and performance fees follow the crypto market (the Byzantine fund holds 4,679 BTC). The applications for MiCA and payment licences in Malta (July 2026) have not yet been approved.
- −2Share price riskThe price has fallen 87% over a year (from DKK 8.72 at the turn of the year) and is far below the issue price of DKK 3.935 from May-July 2026.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2AUM and fee growthContracted AUM in the hedge funds grew 136% in Q1 and 8.5% in Q2 to USD 119.5m, and management fees rose 74% quarter on quarter in USD.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis. Market cap does not quite match Nordnet: 131.1m shares in total (A+B, stockanalysis) × SEK 1.704 = SEK 223m ≈ DKK 148m, vs Nordnet's DKK 134m (corresponding to c. 119m shares, probably only B shares and an older figure). In August 2026, 2.16m shares (Helena) and 1.98m (Nordark earn-out) were also issued, which may not be included. Revenue in 2025 (SEK 204m, primarily from Cayman entities, with negative gross margin) is not comparable with 2026's fee income. Cash burn and runway are based on TTM figures, as the company does not disclose monthly costs; the Q2 report PDF could not be read. Terms and utilisation of the LDA Capital facility and the remaining amount of the Helena convertibles are not confirmed. Industry: 'Finance, data & insurance brokerage' is the closest (crypto asset management).
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