Rankings Tech hardware & optics IonQ
IonQ
28
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−31
- Margin−10
- Cash flow and dilution−10
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Raised guidance+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 28, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 28.17 USD
- Median analyst target
- 62.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +121.9%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 41.85 – 100.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −55%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginThe gross margin has fallen every year: 74.0% (2022), 63.9%, 52.8%, 42.1% (2025) and 30.9% TTM; analysts expect 33% in 2026 with the SkyWater foundry. The operating result is −$940m TTM on $246m of revenue (margin −382%). The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC.
- −5Quality of growthAbout $170m of the $450–460m 2026 guidance is acquired SkyWater revenue from 31/7, which is contract chip manufacturing, not quantum computers. Organic growth is about 100% ($280–290m), but Oxford Ionics and other acquisitions also contribute.
- −5Capital allocationShare- and cash-paid acquisitions of about $2.8bn (SkyWater about $1.8bn, Oxford Ionics about $1bn). A P/TBV of 48.9 shows how much of equity is now goodwill.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−31 of −35
- −31Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 72 and EV/sales 63 TTM are at the bottom of its own history (P/S 62–210 and EV/sales 26–202 in 2022–25) and below Rigetti, but the history is a bubble history. Forward P/S of 26 rests on acquired revenue, P/B is 5.1 vs 1.2–23.6. You pay 72 times revenue for a business with a 31% gross margin and no profit in sight (EPS 2027e −$1.31).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −10Cash flow and dilutionFCF −$484m TTM vs −$300m in 2025; stock-based pay $450m TTM (1.8 times revenue); share count +50% in a year and +2.5% in the quarter. $2.99bn was raised through share issues TTM.
- −4Governance (short report)In February Wolfpack claimed that Pentagon contracts making up to 86% of revenue in 2022–24 have lost funding, and that the gap ($54.6m of bookings) has been filled with acquisitions and dilution. IonQ denies it; Ademi is investigating on behalf of investors.
- −2Macro and sectorThe quantum sector has been de-rated: the stock is −34% over 52 weeks with a beta of 3.3 and 10% of shares sold short.
- −1Insider tradingOnly small sales in 2026 (about $1.8m in total), mostly to cover tax on vesting, e.g. the CEO's 16,121 shares for about $0.6m on 11/9; director William Teuber bought $0.1m in February. The old claim of sales of $406.5m is not confirmed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashNet cash about $2.06bn ($2.12bn of liquidity vs $54.5m of debt) after the SkyWater payment, i.e. about 12% of market value.
- +2Raised guidanceQ2 revenue rose 287% to $80.1m, and organic full-year guidance was raised to $280–290m (about +100%); on 8/9 raised again to $450–460m incl. SkyWater.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Losses: operating margin −382% and FCF −$484m TTM. Revenue guidance of $450–460m for 2026 includes about $170m of acquired SkyWater revenue (from 31/7); organic $280–290m. GAAP results are distorted by billion-dollar losses on warrant revaluation. The Wolfpack allegations have been rejected by IonQ but not resolved. The earlier claim of $406.5m in insider selling could not be verified in Form 4 data and has been removed.
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