Rankings Software, cloud & internet IREN
IREN
41
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Margin and ROIC−8
- Debt and financing needs−8
Strengths
- Contracted revenue+4
How the score is built
From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 22.02 USD
- Median analyst target
- 76.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +247.4%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 37.00 – 139.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −64%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −8Margin and ROICOperating margin −54% and net margin −99% in FY26 (to June); adjusted EBITDA only USD 19.2m in Q4 (14% margin), down 68%. ROIC −7%.
- −7Capital allocation and dilutionUSD 4.75bn raised in new shares in FY26 and share count +41.6% in a year (−124% in FY25); share-based pay USD 205m = 29% of revenue.
- −4MoatGPU rental (neocloud) is a capital-heavy and fairly uniform service competing with CoreWeave, Nebius and the hyperscalers themselves; no software lock-in, and returns depend on GPU prices and residual value.
- −3Quality of growthMining revenue fell 40% quarter on quarter and is being phased out; FY27 revenue of USD 2.8bn assumes delivery of new capacity, and analysts still expect losses (EPS −3.42 in FY27).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 26.0 vs 4.3-7.4 in FY23-FY25 and P/B 3.79 vs 0.4-1.9; the multiples have tripled in a year, even though the company has gone from profit to a loss of USD 703m.
- −3PeersForward P/S 5.9 vs CoreWeave 2.5 and Nebius 9.3; trailing EV/Sales 26 vs CoreWeave 12.6. Priced at the high end for a neocloud without earnings.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−22 of −35
- −8Debt and financing needsGross debt USD 7.84bn (incl. USD 2.6bn in 1% convertibles due 2033), net debt 1.94bn, Altman Z 0.98 and negative interest coverage. FY27 capex is expected at USD 25–30bn vs a market cap of 16.5bn, and consensus FCF for FY27 is −20.7bn; further debt or dilution is almost unavoidable.
- −4Customer concentrationMicrosoft accounts for 1 of USD 4bn in contracted ARR (25%) via the 9.7bn contract; the rest sits with a few AI labs and start-ups (Cohere, Perplexity, Figure AI etc.) with higher credit risk.
- −3Residual value of hardwareWrite-downs of USD 450m on phased-out mining equipment plus 127m on other equipment in Q4 show how fast hardware loses value; GPUs on five-year contracts carry the same risk on re-leasing.
- −3ExecutionMust deliver 0.3 GW of IT capacity in 2026 and a further 0.8 GW in 2027; delays in construction, power connection or GPU delivery postpone revenue while interest and depreciation keep running.
- −2Bitcoin price (remaining mining)Mining until shutdown takes place at a weak hashprice (record-low USD 27.7/PH/day in June) and bitcoin around USD 83,500, close to the industry's cash production cost (approx. USD 75,500).
- −2Market signalShort interest 21% of shares (24% of float) and beta 4.3; the stock is −11% over a year.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+4 of +15
- +4Contracted revenueUSD 4bn in contracted ARR, and 2026 capacity is largely sold out; customer prepayments fund 45–55% of GPU capex, and GPU financing of USD 2.8bn has been secured.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
In the middle of the transition from bitcoin mining to AI cloud: mining is shut down completely before Dec. 2026, so historical multiples and margins say little about the future. Not flagged as cyclical, because future earnings rest on multi-year AI contracts and not on the bitcoin price (82% of FY26 revenue was still mining, though). Industry set to nearest: Software, cloud & internet (GPU cloud). Price USD 41.76, market cap USD 16.5bn (2 Oct. 2026)
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