Rankings Tech hardware & optics poLight
poLight
41
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Peers and absolute level−8
Strengths
- Strategic partner+3
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 41, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 13.40 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +110%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−25 of −30
- −12MarginThe operating loss is NOK 127m on revenue of 34m TTM (operating margin −371%). The loss has grown every year from −NOK 54m (2021) to −127m, and there has never been a profit. Gross margin swings from −8% to 69% per quarter.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue is +245% TTM, but from a very low level (NOK 34m after more than 10 years on the market). It has swung widely: 22.5m in 2023, 9.6m in 2024 and 20.5m in 2025. AR orders in Q2 totalled about NOK 4m. There has not yet been a single consumer product launch in volume.
- −5Capital allocationOngoing dilution: 63.7m new shares to Q Tech at DKK 2.69 (33% of the company) and a subsequent issue of up to 19.1m shares in 2025. The share count has roughly quadrupled since 2021 (about 47m adjusted for 1:5 split). ROIC is -24%.
- −3MoatTLens (piezo-based autofocus) is patented and unique in speed, size and power consumption, which is relevant for AR glasses. It must, however, displace cheap VCM autofocus motors (TDK, Alps Alpine), and liquid lenses (Corning Varioptic, Optotune) compete in the niches. The smartphone breakthrough after 2019 failed to materialise.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−18 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 86 vs 46-64 in 2022-2024 and 54 at the end of 2025. Only the 2021 bubble (177) was higher. P/B is 10.9 vs 2.7-7.1 in 2022-2025. The price is up 195% in a year and about 150% since the Q1 report (from about SEK 6).
- −8Peers and absolute levelEV of about NOK 2.95bn for NOK 34m in revenue and a loss of 116m. The price (NOK 14.8) is above Analyst Group's paid fair value of NOK 13.2 (August 2026). The price already assumes a significant AR volume ramp that nobody has seen yet.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −6Customer concentration and binary dependenceThe entire investment case rests on one consumer AR design-in at an unnamed OEM (upgraded after an order of NOK 0.8m 10/7-2026) with an expected product launch 'during 2026'. Volume, price per unit and the customer's identity are unknown.
- −4History of missed breakthroughspoLight has repeatedly promised a volume breakthrough since the 2018 listing (smartphones, wearables, barcode scanners). Revenue is still under 40m NOK. Management itself writes that there is 'hope' that 2026 will be the year of the first AR shipment.
- −3Governance and geopoliticsChinese Q Technology (listed in Hong Kong, camera modules) owns about 30%, can appoint two board members and is building its own TLens production line. The strategic dependence on one Chinese partner creates trade-policy and bargaining-power risk.
- −2FundingCash is NOK 244m at 30/6, and spending is approx. 20m per quarter (H1: 40m). That gives approx. 3 years of breathing room, but a volume ramp may require working capital and capacity.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Strategic partnerQ Technology invested 171.5m NOK (2.69 kr/share, two-year lock-up) and is establishing a dedicated TLens assembly and test line. According to poLight, Q Tech is 'backed by a leading US consumer electronics customer'.
- +2Net cashNet cash is NOK 233m, and there is only 10m in leasing debt. With approx. 3 years of runway there is no forced issue in the short term.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). The only coverage is Analyst Group's paid analysis (fair value DKK 13.2). Stockanalysis: 214.95m shares × DKK 14.80 = NOK 3.18bn ≈ DKK 2,190m, c. 4% below Nordnet's DKK 2,276m. Stockanalysis' quarterly share counts for Q2 2026 are distorted (implying c. 121m), but the actual figure is c. 215m (193m after the Q Tech placement in May 2025 plus the subsequent issue). No specific insider trades or short data found. The customer behind the AR design-in has not been disclosed.
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