Rankings Transport & logistics Mærsk
Mærsk
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Overcapacity−6
- Margin−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 23,080 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 19,062 DKK
- Upside to median
- −17.4%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 11,965 – 27,314 DKK
- 52-week change
- +72%
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.8
- Forward P/E
- 10.2
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−17 of −30
- −5MarginOperating margin 4.8% and net margin 4.1% (TTM) vs 5.2% in 2025, 10.8% in 2024 and 31–38% in 2021–2022. Outside a freight boom the group only earns low single-digit margins on revenue of USD 56bn.
- −4ROICROIC 4.0% vs WACC 6.8%; 4.5% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2023. Only in the boom years (2021–2022 and 2024) has the return covered the cost of capital.
- −3Future segmentThe integrator strategy was meant to make Logistics & Services the growth engine, but the segment has only grown from USD 14.7bn to 16.6bn since 2022 and had an EBIT margin of 5.1% in Q2 2026. Ocean still accounts for about 61% of revenue.
- −3MoatContainer shipping is a commodity service without pricing power: rates and earnings follow the capacity balance. MSC has overtaken Maersk as the world's largest container line, and Maersk has chosen not to match competitors' fleet expansion.
- −2Capital allocationBuybacks (USD 1.8bn) and dividends (USD 1.1bn) over the last 12 months exceed FCF after lease payments of only USD 0.64bn, while capex is USD 10–11bn for 2026–2027.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.89 vs 0.44–0.60 in 2022–2025 (highest since 2021); EV/EBITDA 5.1 at the top of the 2.4–5.3 range; trailing P/E 22.9 vs 1.3–12.4. The forward P/E of 7.4 is measured on the 2026 peak – on the 2027 estimate (about USD 125 per share) the P/E is about 29. The share price is up 81% in a year.
- −4FCF yieldFCF yield 8.75% before leases, but only about 1.3% after lease payments (USD 0.64bn TTM vs a market value of about USD 50bn). Analysts expect FCF of USD 1.76bn in 2026, about 3.5%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −6OvercapacityA record order book of 13–14m TEU (about 42% of the fleet); deliveries rise to 2.8m TEU in 2027 and 3.5m TEU in 2028, and supply is expected to grow faster than demand in 2027 regardless of the outcome in the Strait of Hormuz.
- −5Temporary earningsThe guidance lift is due to unbalanced trade flows and rerouting because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where spot rates rose sharply. Earnings are carried by a geopolitical event that could reverse quickly; analysts expect EPS −74% in 2027.
- −2Governance and controlA.P. Møller Holding owns about 41.5% of the capital and about 51.5% of the votes via the A shares; B shareholders have no real influence.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Raised guidanceUnderlying EBIT for 2026 raised to USD 4.5–6.5bn from 2.0–4.0bn and EBITDA to 10.5–12.5bn from 8–10bn; FCF guidance lifted to above 0 from −USD 1.5bn. Q2 EBIT USD 1.6bn vs 0.85bn a year earlier.
- +2Net cashNet cash of USD 1.0bn at 30 June 2026 (cash and securities of 18.5bn vs debt incl. leases of 17.5bn); debt/equity 0.31.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The B share (MAERSK.B). Accounts in USD, price in DKK. Forward P/E 7.4 is calculated on the 2026 peak (EPS USD 481); analysts expect EPS of USD 125 in 2027 (−74%). The share count's +9.6% q/q at stockanalysis appears to be a data effect – an annual fall of 6% due to buybacks. Peers (Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO) have not been examined.
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