Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants McDonald's
McDonald's
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−7
- Customers are shifting−6
- Quality of growth−4
Strengths
- Diversified base+3
- Dividend+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 265.64 USD
- Median analyst target
- 294.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +10.7%
- Analysts
- 33
- Target range
- 230.00 – 390.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −11%
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.6
- Forward P/E
- 20.2
- PEG
- 3.04
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−8 of −30
- −1ROICROIC 17.8% vs 19.7% in 2023 (18.7% in 2024 and 18.3% in 2025): still high, but falling three years in a row. The operating margin is flat at 45.7% vs 46.1% in 2025.
- −4Quality of growthGlobal same-store sales only +1.3% in Q2 and US +0.8%, driven by a higher average check while traffic fell. Analysts expect only 3.2% annual revenue growth and 6.5% EPS growth over three years, and new restaurants contribute less (about 2.5% in 2027, about 2% in 2030).
- −3Capital allocationThe investor day promised franchisees about $8.5bn of support to 2036 (about $5bn before 2030) as rent relief and capital contributions, plus $1.5–2bn of extra investment in 2027–30 on top of about $3bn a year. The money is meant to keep the system competitive rather than create new growth, and rent relief reduces McDonald's own rental income.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−7 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E 19.0 vs 25.3–31.3 at year-ends 2021–25; forward P/E 17.7 vs 23.6–26.9; EV/EBITDA 14.7 vs 18.6–20.4; P/FCF 21.3 vs 28–35. Clearly below its own history on every multiple, but with lower growth (EPS about 6–7%) and net debt at 3.6x EBITDA part of the discount is deserved. (The old list mixed PEG into Price, which has been removed.)
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−20 of −35
- −6Customers are shiftingVisits from low-income customers keep falling; in 2025 industry visits from this group fell by double-digit percentages, and in Q2 2026 US traffic fell again. The goal is to gain 1.5 percentage points of share in both chicken and beverages by 2030. GLP-1 is a long-term threat to traffic.
- −2ExecutionToo many simultaneous value offers muddled the message in the US in Q2, and a new head of McDonald's USA has been appointed to turn around the home market.
- −2LawsuitsDiscrimination lawsuits from Black franchisees have been partly dismissed, but parts of the case continue, and there are calls for boycotts.
- −2DebtNet debt about $53.8bn (3.6x EBITDA) and negative equity; rated BBB+/Baa1 stable. The extra franchisee support and higher investment must be funded on top of dividends and buybacks that already use almost all FCF.
- −2Insider tradingAbout $27m sold in 2026 with no purchases; CEO Chris Kempczinski sold $17.5m at $332 in February, and the head of McDonald's USA has sold continuously through the year.
- −3Investor day and price targetsThe stock fell 4.3% to a four-year low on the investor day, 23/9. Price targets have since been cut: Baird $285→250, Oppenheimer 325→295, Morgan Stanley 308→297 and Melius (Sell) 250→230. No EPS target was given, only a 2030 margin target. (The old list mentioned that the 50,000-restaurant goal had been pushed to 2028; that is not in the investor materials and has been removed.)
- −3MacroFalling consumer confidence and high petrol prices squeeze the low-income core customer.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Diversified baseRestaurants in over 100 countries; international same-store sales +1.5% (IOM) and +1.9% (IDL) in Q2, led by Germany, Australia, the UK and Japan.
- +2DividendDividend yield 3.3% with a 63% payout ratio. Dividends ($5.2bn) and buybacks ($2.3bn) totalled $7.55bn, just below FCF of $7.76bn, so there is almost no margin.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Falling US visits, especially from low-income customers. Price targets are still being cut after the investor day on 23/9 (Baird $250, Melius Sell $230, Morgan Stanley $297), so the upside to the average price target (about $300) is too high. Support for franchisees (about $8.5bn to 2036, partly as rent reductions) squeezes future rental income; the effect on EPS is not disclosed. Q3 results 4/11.
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